The simple truth about Bitcoin price correlation in 2020 ...

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How to make speculative chart, first few minutes is slow but gets going after (x-post from /r/Bitcoin)

How to make speculative chart, first few minutes is slow but gets going after (x-post from /Bitcoin) submitted by ASICmachine to CryptoCurrencyClassic [link] [comments]

Bitcoin sinks to 4-week low amid bearish chart, speculation on China crackdown on cryptos

Bitcoin sinks to 4-week low amid bearish chart, speculation on China crackdown on cryptos submitted by leftok to atbitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin sinks to 4-week low amid bearish chart, speculation on China crackdown on cryptos

Bitcoin sinks to 4-week low amid bearish chart, speculation on China crackdown on cryptos submitted by KitcoNews to KitcoNEWS [link] [comments]

How to Speculate Bitcoin Price with Charts

How to Speculate Bitcoin Price with Charts submitted by Martha_Paxful to paxful [link] [comments]

Bitcoin in now at that point in a speculative bubble where r/bitcoin asks itself if we are in a speculative bubble. (Hype cycle and rainbow charts coming soon)

Bitcoin in now at that point in a speculative bubble where bitcoin asks itself if we are in a speculative bubble. (Hype cycle and rainbow charts coming soon) submitted by teckers to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

Slow ICO vs Ninja ICO: combating speculations – Bitcoin Network, News, Charts, Guides & Analysis

Slow ICO vs Ninja ICO: combating speculations – Bitcoin Network, News, Charts, Guides & Analysis submitted by bitnewsbot to bitnewsbot [link] [comments]

Want to post about the price of bitcoin, where the price will go, whats happening with the price? Charts? Speculation? Trading info? Great! Theres a sub for that /r/Bitcoin

Want to post about the price of bitcoin, where the price will go, whats happening with the price? Charts? Speculation? Trading info? Great! Theres a sub for that /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Want to post about the price of bitcoin, where the price will go, what’s happening with the price? Charts? Speculation? Trading info? Great! There’s a sub for that

It’s called /BitcoinMarkets
You’ll love it. Check it out! It’s the appropriate place for market discussion, so please direct your market related posts there. Thank you!
submitted by chabes to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Short term trading aside, there might be a comparison to be made with the long term gold chart to bitcoin. (Highly speculative)

Thought it would be worth it to have a discussion about this similarity I found between gold and bitcoin. I wanted to see how markets behave after following certain cycles over long periods so here it goes.
Once again this is highly speculative. This is just to compare bitcoin with another commodity to get an idea of where it could be headed in the long term.
Chart 1: Log scale of Gold showing certain areas of interest where bitcoin behaved in a similar way. (cut off before the year 2009 to get a close view)
http://i.imgur.com/XQsypbl.jpg
Chart 2: Log scale of Bitcoin just as a reference. (Mt.Gox chart is used since it had a market dominance for a longer time than others)
http://i.imgur.com/PGvNKEw.png
Chart 3: What followed after the second cycle ended in 2008
http://i.imgur.com/YQXemOh.png
submitted by cgs0541 to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

Veteran Gold Analyst: Bitcoin is a ‘Speculative Investment’ – Bitcoin Network, News, Charts, Guides & Analysis

Veteran Gold Analyst: Bitcoin is a ‘Speculative Investment’ – Bitcoin Network, News, Charts, Guides & Analysis submitted by bitnewsbot to bitnewsbot [link] [comments]

Australia's Central Bank Governor: Bitcoin 'Feels Like a Speculative Mania' – Bitcoin Network, News, Charts, Guides & Analysis

Australia's Central Bank Governor: Bitcoin 'Feels Like a Speculative Mania' – Bitcoin Network, News, Charts, Guides & Analysis submitted by bitnewsbot to bitnewsbot [link] [comments]

Speculation • Use this chart to compare the Bitcoin price to News events

submitted by btcforumbot to BtcForum [link] [comments]

Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet

Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots.
A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC).
Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea.
When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust.
However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:

Is Bitcoin money?

No.
Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves:
1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own.
As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get.
You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there?
2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile.
If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point:
3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away.
For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast.
On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC
While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad.
One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy.
If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due.
Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.

BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in

Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense.
Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run.
See here
Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well.
Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money.
Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph
The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand.
Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price
Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control.
It's also a national security risk...
The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa
In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca.
He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade.
This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.

Currencies are based on trust

Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged?
The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president.
People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all.
It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board.
For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency
This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government."
The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.

BTC is not gold

Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value.
How do we know that?
Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan.
Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well.
Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties:
First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment.
Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials.
Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans.
It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods.
To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that.
On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.

BTC is really risky

One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds.
But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:

Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient

Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science.
That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale.
The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
submitted by VodkaHaze to badeconomics [link] [comments]

The Four Horsemen - Signs of Incoming Crashes, and things.

Hey y'all! I'm going to keep this brief, but I was asked by Mr. October to post this, since I briefly described this on a discord we're both in. I do a ton of market analysis, mostly on alternative data, so I don't have cool superpowers potentially, but I do fancy myself a good trendspotter.
I wanted to share what I call my Four Horseman metric in brief, and I will fill it in more later when I get back/free from the clutches of homework.
The Four Horsemen:
  1. Rapid plunge in BTC/USD - This is an interesting metric, and makes sense if you understand that BTC has evolved from a hedge to a speculation play, which is why it arguably moves in lockstep with SPY most days. However, an interesting property I and many others have noticed is BTC seems to be a leading indicator of market movements, and rapid climbs/plunges tend to signal an incoming correction. See the chart on September 2nd, 2020 for an example.
  2. NOPE_MAD >= 3 End of Day: NOPE, or Net Option Pricing Effect, in principle looks at how dominant options flow trading volume is on the market compared to the more conventional shares volume. When the NOPE_MAD (median absolute deviation) compared to the previous 30 days is 3 deviations higher than normal, this means a red day the next day about 88% of the time (backtested to Mar 2019). You can check NOPE_MAD intraday here - https://thenope.info/nope/default/charts/SPY/2020-10-13 (the URL changes per day, so tomorrow will be 2020-10-14)
  3. The VIX rising with SPY - This usually is part of the parabolic phase, and means a metric fuck ton of calls are being written, which is pushing up option prices across the board. Usually VIX is a measure of downies-volatility, so when it and SPY both go up, it's a Very Bad Thing. Also see September 2nd, 2020.
  4. Small Tech/Caps Leading Big Tech/Caps - This is a more interesting metric, and only makes sense when you understand what causes a Minsky Moment style correction (irrational exuberance). In a stable market, big caps tend to act as a source of strength/safe harbor, and when small caps are leading, this tends to signal intense bull mania, which usually precedes a correction.
Honorable Mentions:
  1. Microsoft going up parabolically - Microsoft is our favorite boomer stock for a reason - it is much more stable than AMZN or AAPL, and doesn't like large movements. I noticed anecdotally this year that right before all the big tech corrections (3-5 days out) MSFT goes up exponentially, often more than the rest of the market, because smart money is looking for safe harbor.
I'd be happy to answer any questions later!

Edit: Wanted to add some stuff given the comments below.
  1. I did not write this to predict a crash based on today's behavior, but to generally inform about a metric I use to detect Minsky Moment style crashes. For more info on that - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment
  2. Lots of these indicators are new, and due in large part due to the relative fuckiness of the current market. Bitcoin and SPY did not track until this year, and I only noticed the Microsoft effect I mentioned since about 6/5 onwards. This likely also happens in other boomesafe stocks, but MSFT is by far my largest active trading position, hence why I noticed it.
  3. I will be adding a post soon specifically dedicated to the interpretation of NOPE and NOPE_MAD.
submitted by the_lilypad to thecorporation [link] [comments]

Is there any chart/stat that tries to sift out Bitcoin transaction volume for actual goods and services from currency speculation and trades?

I'm curious if there's a way to track the commercial market from the speculation market.
Anyone seen anything that at least takes a stab at it?
submitted by WarpvsWeft to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Speculation • November 2013 - 2015 bitcoin charts awesome

submitted by btcforumbot to BtcForum [link] [comments]

2 Charts - S&P 500 in 2015, the other, Bitcoin, same window. Which is more speculative/volatile? :)

2 Charts - S&P 500 in 2015, the other, Bitcoin, same window. Which is more speculative/volatile? :) submitted by startingtobelieve to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Is this a great delusion or am I missing something?

Hey guys,
Been closely following the market throughout the last few months and it feels like I'm watching a movie or something.
Don't get me wrong, I am a hodler and understand the mechanics of BTC, but I also don't believe in decoupling of BTC from the stock market (as it's clear, BTC growing chart is tightly related to the s&p growth). Which leads me to a thought that this entire show we're witnessing right now is nothing but either a great delusion or a deliberate pump before a massive dump.
Fundamentals are simply not here, economy is simply not running. What is happening?
Does anyone have the same feeling about it?
Interested to hear your opinion about it.
p.s. all these memes are becoming slightly annoying, it feels like BTC has become a pure speculative asset and the only purpose of the majority of posters here is to cause FOMO in public.
submitted by ys2020 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Chainlink, Waves, Dogecoin Price Analysis: 25 October

This post was originally published on this siteThis post was originally published on this siteChainlink was recording strong gains on the charts amidst speculation that its rally could be stronger than Bitcoin’s once again, like it was in July. Bitcoin had climbed to $13,300 at press time and it might just head higher, with many other altcoins posting gains too. However, while […]
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🍫💛 18➄o✮424✴❶333 ♞🎉 @ Binance Support Number

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Bitcoin's 30-day flimsiness down to its most insignificant level since October 2019, demonstrating the nonattendance of directional tendency.

When all is said in done, computerized types of cash passed on a mixed display. Most huge top advanced types of cash passed on negative returns, while mid and minimal top cryptographic types of cash, for instance, LINK, ADA, BAT, VET, and IOST passed on positive returns. In particular, VET had a staggering month, passing on over 40% return in June. 1855*708*1311 @@ BINance Customer Service Number

Binance Futures included 6 new understandings, taking its total incessant understanding commitments to 31. 1855*708*1311 @@ BINance Customer Service Number

Open energy on Binance Futures continues producing for the fourth successive month from 500 million to 580 million USDT, a 16% month-on-month increase. In Q2, open interest has created by ove1855*708*1311 @@ BINance Customer Service Numberr 160% from 200 million USDT in March.

Bitcoin unsteadiness generally diminished since October 2019

Bitcoin's worth action has promptly gotten horrible for certain traders. Its worth run has fixed over the latest couple of weeks, floating some place in the scope of $9,000 and $9,500.

The slight worth get has in like manner decided Bitcoin's 30-day eccentrics down to its most negligible level since October 2019, exhibiting the nonappearance of directional tendency.

Preparing to its third separating, Bitcoin empowered by over 150% in just two months. Starting now and into the foreseeable future, Bitcoin has again and again fail to develop an a trustworthy parity above $10,000. The nonattendance of buyer vitality has created a peaceful and quiet worth reach out for Bitcoin; this has incited speculations that a significant move is on its way.

Blueprint 1 - Bitcoin's Thirty-day Rolling Volatility

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As showed up in the unquestionable data, Bitcoin will all in all chart sudden gigantic moves following a sharp fall in unsteadiness to or lower than 30%. For instance, when capriciousness hit a low of 21% in mid-February this year, and in the following weeks, Bitcoin tumbled from $10,000 to a low of $3,800, a sharp 60% decline in just a single month. In a comparable period, unconventionality spiked from 21% to over 90% as budgetary masters reacted in free for all to the sudden mishap.

While we are not envisioning a similar mishap as found in March, the critical takeaway is, seasons of incredibly low precariousness routinely go before Bitcoin breakouts or breakdowns of enormous scope importance.

Altcoins become the predominant point of convergence

With capriciousness on its least in near a year, BTC passed on negative returns in June, completing the month down 3.2%. In like manner, major altcoins, for instance, ETH, BCH, and EOS completed the month some place around - 2.6%, - 6.9%, and - 11.5% independently.

All things considered, computerized types of cash passed on a mixed introduction. Most tremendous top computerized types of cash passed on negative returns, while mid and minimal top cryptographic types of cash, for instance, LINK, ADA, BAT, VET, and IOST. In particular, VET had a phenomenal month, passing on over 40% return in June.

These new asset commitments are depended upon to give extra trading opportunities to all crypto-auxiliaries representatives and open entryways for diggers to help.

Trading volume shrinks despite Altcoin demand

In June, trading volume on Binance Futures indicated a 36% month-on-month decay, with $87.6 billion traded over its relentless understandings. Binance Futures demonstrated a consistently typical volume of $2.9 billion, 34% lower than the ordinary step by step volume to May.Bitcoin's most noteworthy preferred position quality

In reality, even as new altcoin contracts were introduced, BTC ceaseless agreements remained the most contributed understanding, overpowering 67% of irrefutably the open interest. Over the latest fourteen days, open energy for BTC contracts has grown logically regardless of its limited worth run.

This discernment is contrary to the volume data demonstrated previously. In the past diagram, we observed more altcoin volume all through June, regardless, the extended volume rate didn't mean a higher open interest rate. Or maybe, a huge part of the open interest advancement was driven by BTC gets, this may recommend that specialists are arranging directional bets on Bitcoin.
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Cryptocurrrencies like bitcoins are represented by 2nd or 4th house? Or some other house?

2nd house is the house of moveable wealth. Which clearly bitcoin is. But there are lots of people with their wealth stored in bitcoins, which isn't going to be moved for a very long period of time. So that makes it immovable asset? Anyone who has done readings for bitcoins or any cryptocurrencies, please shed some light.
submitted by svayam--bhagavan to vedicastrology [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Speculation - Live from Stuttgart Germany Bitcoin technical analysis - Long term price speculation (5k to 3k to 6k to 1200) Elliott wave extended tutorial - Bitcoin Speculation Unterstützungen, Widerstände, Trendlinien: Grundlagen der ... Bitcoin & Bitcoin Cash technical analysis & speculation

Wenn die Bitcoin-Börsengänge ausgereift sind, wird es möglich sein, die implizite Volatilität des Bitcoins auszurechnen, was in vielerlei Hinsicht eine bessere Messung darstellt. Wie schwankend ist Bitcoin im Vergleich zu Gold und anderen Währungen? Zum Vergleich, die Volatilität von Gold beträgt im Durchschnitt 1,2%, während die von anderen wichtigen Währungen zwischen 0,5 % und 1,0 ... Bitcoin price forecast at the end of the month $14114, change for October 31.5%. BTC to USD predictions for November 2020. In the beginning price at 14114 Dollars. Maximum price $17127, minimum price $13454. The average for the month $15005. Bitcoin price forecast at the end of the month $15323, change for November 8.6%. Grayscale chart on Bitcoin HODL. In this way, each of the lines represents the following: Blue: BTC price in dollars; Green: Bitcoin speculators; Gray: Bitcoin accumulators (HODLers). The chart covers the period between January 2013 and August 2020. The concept of speculation is best explained in the document's text: To some, it’s a vessel for speculation and investment. For others, it’s a censorship-resistant medium of exchange free of remittance controls when sending money home. But at its heart, Bitcoin might best be described as an alternative monetary system that offers people monetary independence. And it’s this view of Bitcoin that drives the narrative that the cryptocurrency functions as a ... Bitcoin Fundamental Analysis 2019. To reiterate, looking at the chart for the years of 2017 and 2018 show a seemingly irrational price increase and decrease. To confirm your beliefs, it was ...

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Bitcoin Speculation - Live from Stuttgart Germany

This video is about bitcoin historical price chart and analysis of real estate and stock market speculation. Whether you are looking to invest in stock market, real estate or investing in crypto ... BITCOIN kurz vor Ausbruch ($9.000)? Klage gegen Binance, Tron, Bitmex und Co.! Krypto News Deutsch Klage gegen Binance, Tron, Bitmex und Co.! Krypto News Deutsch - Duration: 10:14. Hi guys another update here on the Bitcoin chart & also a little bit of speculation of Bitcoin Cash & where it's headed. Remember to trade with caution, we are at very high levels & this whole ... Hi guys here a short introduction to the Elliott Waves principle using the Bitcoin Chart as an example for a possible price action in the medium to long term. Remember to trade with caution, we ... There is one important chart that most people are not seeing on Bitcoin. It is very simple to adjust your chart so you can see this important bitcoin graph. We explain in this video. For more on ...

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