Experts debate where the bitcoin price will go in 2020

Ripple vs Bitcoin - Why does Ripple have any value, what's driving today's 70% price move and is the tech different from btc ?

For a speculator Ripple looks very tempting. What's the difference between the tech of Bitcoin and Ripple?
submitted by JamersonHall to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Ethlus created to swap Ethereum coins to Bitcoin and Ripple. And what? The thing is that sellers may receive increased value for their Ethereum coins, say X2 of the market, and buyers compete with smaller bids for all piece. Learn how it drives.

Ethlus created to swap Ethereum coins to Bitcoin and Ripple. And what? The thing is that sellers may receive increased value for their Ethereum coins, say X2 of the market, and buyers compete with smaller bids for all piece. Learn how it drives. submitted by cryptoallbot1 to cryptoall [link] [comments]

Ripple vs Bitcoin - Why does Ripple have any value, what's driving today's 70% price move and is the tech different from btc ? /r/Bitcoin

Ripple vs Bitcoin - Why does Ripple have any value, what's driving today's 70% price move and is the tech different from btc ? /Bitcoin submitted by coincrazyy to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

I don't think Bitcoin will succeed as a currency. Rather, I think it will succeed as a protocol and this is what will drive its value.

I don't think Bitcoin will succeed as a currency. Rather, I think it will succeed as a protocol and this is what will drive its value. Corporations, banks and governments will build a network of infrastructures for various purposes on top of the blockchain via sidechains, coloured coins and off-chain, but integrated applications and algorithms. People will choose to store a portion of their wealth in Bitcoin not (primarily) because bitcoins are in demand for value transfer but because the Bitcoin protocol will be ubiquitous and essential to the structure and function of interconnected corporate, financial and political infrastructures.
Would you not choose to store some of your wealth in the Internet (as opposed to the dollar or gold, etc.) if it were possible? I think storing your wealth in Bitcoin will be akin to this concept in the future.
What do you think?
submitted by xxeyes to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Value - Why is the Volatility High, What will Drive the Value Today and Tomorrow

Bitcoin Value - Why is the Volatility High, What will Drive the Value Today and Tomorrow submitted by btcrack to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

What r/fatFIRE can learn from the book, Psychology of Money

My favorite author, Morgan Housel, released his new book, The Psychology of Money, last week. In the book, Housel discussed many interesting psychological phenomenon, through the lens of finance. As I flipped through the pages, I started to realize so much of what's happening in fatFIRE are examples of what's discussed in the book.
No One's Crazy
The book begins with how your personal experiences with money make up maybe 0.000000001% of what's happened in the world, but maybe 80% of how you think the world works.
For example, if you were born in 1970, the S&P 500 increased almost 10-fold, adjusted for inflation, during your teens and 20s. That's an amazing return. If you were born in 1950, the market went literally nowhere in your teens and 20s adjusted for inflation. Two groups of people, separated by chance of their birth year, go through life with a completely different view on how the stock market works.
Takeaways for fatFIRE:
When you read other posts and comments about what stocks to buy, what startups to join, what's the economy going to be like, what's the best asset allocation, etc., remember that is just a single person's point of view. That person may be from a different generation, earns different incomes, upholds different values, keeps different jobs, and has different degrees of luck.
And remember, don't be mean to others. A view about money that one group of people thinks is outrageous can make perfect sense to another.
Luck & Risk
The next chapter discusses the big role luck and risk plays in someone's life. Luck and risk are two sides of the same coin.
Examples from the book: Countless fortunes (and mistakes) owe their outcomes to leverage. The best (and worst) managers drive their employees as hard as they can. "The customers are always right" and "customers don't know what they want" are both accepted business wisdom. The line between "inspiringly bold" and "foolishly reckless" can be a millimeter thick and only visible with hindsight. Risk and luck are doppelgängers.
Takeaways for fatFIRE:
Be careful who you praise and admire. That commenter who joined a unicorn at Series A may look like a genius on the outside, but they may just be lucky and cannot repeat it again.
Be careful who you look down upon and wish to avoid becoming. That poster who joined WeWork may look like a fool, but they made the best decision based on the information they had at a time. They took a risk and got unlucky.
Therefore, focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns.
Furthermore, when things are going extremely well, realize it's not as good as you think -- like the stock market right now.
On the other hand, we should forgive ourselves and leave room for understanding when judging failures -- like the stock market in March.
Never Enough
The hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving. It gets dangerous when the taste of having more -- more money, more power, more prestige -- increases ambition faster than satisfaction.
Social comparison is the problem here. A rookie baseball players who earns $500k a year envies Mike Trout who has a 12-year, $430 million contract envies a hedge fund manager who makes $340 million a year envies Warren Buffett who had a $3.5 billion increase in fortune in 2018.
There are many things never worth risking, no matter the potential gain. Reputation is invaluable. Freedom and independence are invaluable. Friends and family are invaluable. Being loved by those who you want to love you is invaluable. Happiness is invaluable. And your best shot at keeping these things is knowing when it's time to stop taking risks that might harm them. Knowing when you have enough.
Takeaways for fatFIRE:
When you make a big gain, it's totally okay to take profit, as long as you keep your ambition down and acknowledge the possibility that it may go higher. If that happens, no need to play the would've should've could've game, because it very well might've gone the other way.
When you see someone who got 20x return on Shopify or bet big into Ethereum in 2016, remember they may envy the pre-IPO employees at Shopify or the genius who held Bitcoin since 2010.
At the end of the day, do not risk more than what's comfortable in your life for the sake of making huge amount of money, because even if you do make it, you may not find it worth it.
Tails, You Win
Skipping a few chapters to talk about the prominence of tail events.
At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in 2013 Warren Buffet said he's owned 400 to 500 stocks during his life and made most of his money on 10 of them. Charlie Munger followed up: "If you remove just a few of Berkshire's top investments, its long-term track record is pretty average."
In 2018, Amazon drove 6% of the S&P 500's returns. And Amazon's growth is almost entirely due to Prime and Amazon Web Services, which itself are tail events in a company that has experimented with hundreds of products, from the Fire Phone to travel agencies.
Apple was responsible for almost 7% of the index's returns in 2018. And it is driven overwhelmingly by the iPhone, which in the world of tech products is as tail--y as tails get.
And who's working at these companies? Google's hiring acceptance rate if 0.2%. Facebook's is 0.1%. Apple's is about 2%. So the people working on these tail projects that drive tail returns have tail careers.
Takeaways for fatFIRE:
When we pay special attention to a role model's successes we overlook that their gains came from a small percent of their actions. That makes our own failures, losses, and setbacks feel like we're doing something wrong.
When you accept that tails drive everything is business, investing and finance you will realize that it's normal for lots of things to go wrong, break, fail and fall. If you are a good stock picker you'll be right maybe half the time. If you're a good business leader maybe half of your product and strategy ideas will work. If you're a good investor most years will be just OK, and plenty will be bad. If you're a good worker you'll find the right company in the right field after several attempts and trials. And that's if you're good.
Freedom
The highest form of wealth is the ability to wake up every morning and say "I can do whatever I want today." The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, is priceless. It is the highest dividend money pays.
Research has shown having a strong sense of controlling one's life is a more dependable predictor of positive feelings of wellbeing than any of the objective conditions of life we have considered.
People like to feel like they're in control -- in the drivers' seat. When we try to get them to do something, they feel disempowered. Rather than feeling like they made the choice, they feel like we made it for them. So they say no or do something else, even when they might have originally been happy to go along.
Takeaways for fatFIRE:
Most of you probably are working thought-based and decision job, your tool is your head, which never leaves you. You might be thinking about your project during your commute, as you're making dinner, while you put your kids to sleep, and when you wake up stressed at three in the morning. You might be on the clock for fewer hours than you would in 1050. But it feels like you're working 24/7.
If this feels like you, and you do not like it, it is totally fine to switch to a job that pays less but gives you more freedom and independence, because freedom and independence are what FatFire is all about.
---
I'm only half way into the book, but I can tell this will be one of the best finance book of 2020. If you guys find this useful, happy to come back next week with more insights once I've gotten to the end. I like talking about these things on Twitter too.
Edit: here's part 2 and here's a Twitter thread of the best snippets
submitted by uDontLifeForBeSad to fatFIRE [link] [comments]

Proposal: The Sia Foundation

Vision Statement

A common sentiment is brewing online; a shared desire for the internet that might have been. After decades of corporate encroachment, you don't need to be a power user to realize that something has gone very wrong.
In the early days of the internet, the future was bright. In that future, when you sent an instant message, it traveled directly to the recipient. When you needed to pay a friend, you announced a transfer of value to their public key. When an app was missing a feature you wanted, you opened up the source code and implemented it. When you took a picture on your phone, it was immediately encrypted and backed up to storage that you controlled. In that future, people would laugh at the idea of having to authenticate themselves to some corporation before doing these things.
What did we get instead? Rather than a network of human-sized communities, we have a handful of enormous commons, each controlled by a faceless corporate entity. Hey user, want to send a message? You can, but we'll store a copy of it indefinitely, unencrypted, for our preference-learning algorithms to pore over; how else could we slap targeted ads on every piece of content you see? Want to pay a friend? You can—in our Monopoly money. Want a new feature? Submit a request to our Support Center and we'll totally maybe think about it. Want to backup a photo? You can—inside our walled garden, which only we (and the NSA, of course) can access. Just be careful what you share, because merely locking you out of your account and deleting all your data is far from the worst thing we could do.
You rationalize this: "MEGACORP would never do such a thing; it would be bad for business." But we all know, at some level, that this state of affairs, this inversion of power, is not merely "unfortunate" or "suboptimal" – No. It is degrading. Even if MEGACORP were purely benevolent, it is degrading that we must ask its permission to talk to our friends; that we must rely on it to safeguard our treasured memories; that our digital lives are completely beholden to those who seek only to extract value from us.
At the root of this issue is the centralization of data. MEGACORP can surveil you—because your emails and video chats flow through their servers. And MEGACORP can control you—because they hold your data hostage. But centralization is a solution to a technical problem: How can we make the user's data accessible from anywhere in the world, on any device? For a long time, no alternative solution to this problem was forthcoming.
Today, thanks to a confluence of established techniques and recent innovations, we have solved the accessibility problem without resorting to centralization. Hashing, encryption, and erasure encoding got us most of the way, but one barrier remained: incentives. How do you incentivize an anonymous stranger to store your data? Earlier protocols like BitTorrent worked around this limitation by relying on altruism, tit-for-tat requirements, or "points" – in other words, nothing you could pay your electric bill with. Finally, in 2009, a solution appeared: Bitcoin. Not long after, Sia was born.
Cryptography has unleashed the latent power of the internet by enabling interactions between mutually-distrustful parties. Sia harnesses this power to turn the cloud storage market into a proper marketplace, where buyers and sellers can transact directly, with no intermediaries, anywhere in the world. No more silos or walled gardens: your data is encrypted, so it can't be spied on, and it's stored on many servers, so no single entity can hold it hostage. Thanks to projects like Sia, the internet is being re-decentralized.
Sia began its life as a startup, which means it has always been subjected to two competing forces: the ideals of its founders, and the profit motive inherent to all businesses. Its founders have taken great pains to never compromise on the former, but this often threatened the company's financial viability. With the establishment of the Sia Foundation, this tension is resolved. The Foundation, freed of the obligation to generate profit, is a pure embodiment of the ideals from which Sia originally sprung.
The goals and responsibilities of the Foundation are numerous: to maintain core Sia protocols and consensus code; to support developers building on top of Sia and its protocols; to promote Sia and facilitate partnerships in other spheres and communities; to ensure that users can easily acquire and safely store siacoins; to develop network scalability solutions; to implement hardforks and lead the community through them; and much more. In a broader sense, its mission is to commoditize data storage, making it cheap, ubiquitous, and accessible to all, without compromising privacy or performance.
Sia is a perfect example of how we can achieve better living through cryptography. We now begin a new chapter in Sia's history. May our stewardship lead it into a bright future.
 

Overview

Today, we are proposing the creation of the Sia Foundation: a new non-profit entity that builds and supports distributed cloud storage infrastructure, with a specific focus on the Sia storage platform. What follows is an informal overview of the Sia Foundation, covering two major topics: how the Foundation will be funded, and what its funds will be used for.

Organizational Structure

The Sia Foundation will be structured as a non-profit entity incorporated in the United States, likely a 501(c)(3) organization or similar. The actions of the Foundation will be constrained by its charter, which formalizes the specific obligations and overall mission outlined in this document. The charter will be updated on an annual basis to reflect the current goals of the Sia community.
The organization will be operated by a board of directors, initially comprising Luke Champine as President and Eddie Wang as Chairman. Luke Champine will be leaving his position at Nebulous to work at the Foundation full-time, and will seek to divest his shares of Nebulous stock along with other potential conflicts of interest. Neither Luke nor Eddie personally own any siafunds or significant quantities of siacoin.

Funding

The primary source of funding for the Foundation will come from a new block subsidy. Following a hardfork, 30 KS per block will be allocated to the "Foundation Fund," continuing in perpetuity. The existing 30 KS per block miner reward is not affected. Additionally, one year's worth of block subsidies (approximately 1.57 GS) will be allocated to the Fund immediately upon activation of the hardfork.
As detailed below, the Foundation will provably burn any coins that it cannot meaningfully spend. As such, the 30 KS subsidy should be viewed as a maximum. This allows the Foundation to grow alongside Sia without requiring additional hardforks.
The Foundation will not be funded to any degree by the possession or sale of siafunds. Siafunds were originally introduced as a means of incentivizing growth, and we still believe in their effectiveness: a siafund holder wants to increase the amount of storage on Sia as much as possible. While the Foundation obviously wants Sia to succeed, its driving force should be its charter. Deriving significant revenue from siafunds would jeopardize the Foundation's impartiality and focus. Ultimately, we want the Foundation to act in the best interests of Sia, not in growing its own budget.

Responsibilities

The Foundation inherits a great number of responsibilities from Nebulous. Each quarter, the Foundation will publish the progress it has made over the past quarter, and list the responsibilities it intends to prioritize over the coming quarter. This will be accompanied by a financial report, detailing each area of expenditure over the past quarter, and forecasting expenditures for the coming quarter. Below, we summarize some of the myriad responsibilities towards which the Foundation is expected to allocate its resources.

Maintain and enhance core Sia software

Arguably, this is the most important responsibility of the Foundation. At the heart of Sia is its consensus algorithm: regardless of other differences, all Sia software must agree upon the content and rules of the blockchain. It is therefore crucial that the algorithm be stewarded by an entity that is accountable to the community, transparent in its decision-making, and has no profit motive or other conflicts of interest.
Accordingly, Sia’s consensus functionality will no longer be directly maintained by Nebulous. Instead, the Foundation will release and maintain an implementation of a "minimal Sia full node," comprising the Sia consensus algorithm and P2P networking code. The source code will be available in a public repository, and signed binaries will be published for each release.
Other parties may use this code to provide alternative full node software. For example, Nebulous may extend the minimal full node with wallet, renter, and host functionality. The source code of any such implementation may be submitted to the Foundation for review. If the code passes review, the Foundation will provide "endorsement signatures" for the commit hash used and for binaries compiled internally by the Foundation. Specifically, these signatures assert that the Foundation believes the software contains no consensus-breaking changes or other modifications to imported Foundation code. Endorsement signatures and Foundation-compiled binaries may be displayed and distributed by the receiving party, along with an appropriate disclaimer.
A minimal full node is not terribly useful on its own; the wallet, renter, host, and other extensions are what make Sia a proper developer platform. Currently, the only implementations of these extensions are maintained by Nebulous. The Foundation will contract Nebulous to ensure that these extensions continue to receive updates and enhancements. Later on, the Foundation intends to develop its own implementations of these extensions and others. As with the minimal node software, these extensions will be open source and available in public repositories for use by any Sia node software.
With the consensus code now managed by the Foundation, the task of implementing and orchestrating hardforks becomes its responsibility as well. When the Foundation determines that a hardfork is necessary (whether through internal discussion or via community petition), a formal proposal will be drafted and submitted for public review, during which arguments for and against the proposal may be submitted to a public repository. During this time, the hardfork code will be implemented, either by Foundation employees or by external contributors working closely with the Foundation. Once the implementation is finished, final arguments will be heard. The Foundation board will then vote whether to accept or reject the proposal, and announce their decision along with appropriate justification. Assuming the proposal was accepted, the Foundation will announce the block height at which the hardfork will activate, and will subsequently release source code and signed binaries that incorporate the hardfork code.
Regardless of the Foundation's decision, it is the community that ultimately determines whether a fork is accepted or rejected – nothing can change that. Foundation node software will never automatically update, so all forks must be explicitly adopted by users. Furthermore, the Foundation will provide replay and wipeout protection for its hard forks, protecting other chains from unintended or malicious reorgs. Similarly, the Foundation will ensure that any file contracts formed prior to a fork activation will continue to be honored on both chains until they expire.
Finally, the Foundation also intends to pursue scalability solutions for the Sia blockchain. In particular, work has already begun on an implementation of Utreexo, which will greatly reduce the space requirements of fully-validating nodes (allowing a full node to be run on a smartphone) while increasing throughput and decreasing initial sync time. A hardfork implementing Utreexo will be submitted to the community as per the process detailed above.
As this is the most important responsibility of the Foundation, it will receive a significant portion of the Foundation’s budget, primarily in the form of developer salaries and contracting agreements.

Support community services

We intend to allocate 25% of the Foundation Fund towards the community. This allocation will be held and disbursed in the form of siacoins, and will pay for grants, bounties, hackathons, and other community-driven endeavours.
Any community-run service, such as a Skynet portal, explorer or web wallet, may apply to have its costs covered by the Foundation. Upon approval, the Foundation will reimburse expenses incurred by the service, subject to the exact terms agreed to. The intent of these grants is not to provide a source of income, but rather to make such services "break even" for their operators, so that members of the community can enrich the Sia ecosystem without worrying about the impact on their own finances.

Ensure easy acquisition and storage of siacoins

Most users will acquire their siacoins via an exchange. The Foundation will provide support to Sia-compatible exchanges, and pursue relevant integrations at its discretion, such as Coinbase's new Rosetta standard. The Foundation may also release DEX software that enables trading cryptocurrencies without the need for a third party. (The Foundation itself will never operate as a money transmitter.)
Increasingly, users are storing their cryptocurrency on hardware wallets. The Foundation will maintain the existing Ledger Nano S integration, and pursue further integrations at its discretion.
Of course, all hardware wallets must be paired with software running on a computer or smartphone, so the Foundation will also develop and/or maintain client-side wallet software, including both full-node wallets and "lite" wallets. Community-operated wallet services, i.e. web wallets, may be funded via grants.
Like core software maintenance, this responsibility will be funded in the form of developer salaries and contracting agreements.

Protect the ecosystem

When it comes to cryptocurrency security, patching software vulnerabilities is table stakes; there are significant legal and social threats that we must be mindful of as well. As such, the Foundation will earmark a portion of its fund to defend the community from legal action. The Foundation will also safeguard the network from 51% attacks and other threats to network security by implementing softforks and/or hardforks where necessary.
The Foundation also intends to assist in the development of a new FOSS software license, and to solicit legal memos on various Sia-related matters, such as hosting in the United States and the EU.
In a broader sense, the establishment of the Foundation makes the ecosystem more robust by transferring core development to a more neutral entity. Thanks to its funding structure, the Foundation will be immune to various forms of pressure that for-profit companies are susceptible to.

Drive adoption of Sia

Although the overriding goal of the Foundation is to make Sia the best platform it can be, all that work will be in vain if no one uses the platform. There are a number of ways the Foundation can promote Sia and get it into the hands of potential users and developers.
In-person conferences are understandably far less popular now, but the Foundation can sponsor and/or participate in virtual conferences. (In-person conferences may be held in the future, permitting circumstances.) Similarly, the Foundation will provide prizes for hackathons, which may be organized by community members, Nebulous, or the Foundation itself. Lastly, partnerships with other companies in the cryptocurrency space—or the cloud storage space—are a great way to increase awareness of Sia. To handle these responsibilities, one of the early priorities of the Foundation will be to hire a marketing director.

Fund Management

The Foundation Fund will be controlled by a multisig address. Each member of the Foundation's board will control one of the signing keys, with the signature threshold to be determined once the final composition of the board is known. (This threshold may also be increased or decreased if the number of board members changes.) Additionally, one timelocked signing key will be controlled by David Vorick. This key will act as a “dead man’s switch,” to be used in the event of an emergency that prevents Foundation board members from reaching the signature threshold. The timelock ensures that this key cannot be used unless the Foundation fails to sign a transaction for several months.
On the 1st of each month, the Foundation will use its keys to transfer all siacoins in the Fund to two new addresses. The first address will be controlled by a high-security hot wallet, and will receive approximately one month's worth of Foundation expenditures. The second address, receiving the remaining siacoins, will be a modified version of the source address: specifically, it will increase the timelock on David Vorick's signing key by one month. Any other changes to the set of signing keys, such as the arrival or departure of board members, will be incorporated into this address as well.
The Foundation Fund is allocated in SC, but many of the Foundation's expenditures must be paid in USD or other fiat currency. Accordingly, the Foundation will convert, at its discretion, a portion of its monthly withdrawals to fiat currency. We expect this conversion to be primarily facilitated by private "OTC" sales to accredited investors. The Foundation currently has no plans to speculate in cryptocurrency or other assets.
Finally, it is important that the Foundation adds value to the Sia platform well in excess of the inflation introduced by the block subsidy. For this reason, the Foundation intends to provably burn, on a quarterly basis, any coins that it cannot allocate towards any justifiable expense. In other words, coins will be burned whenever doing so provides greater value to the platform than any other use. Furthermore, the Foundation will cap its SC treasury at 5% of the total supply, and will cap its USD treasury at 4 years’ worth of predicted expenses.
 
Addendum: Hardfork Timeline
We would like to see this proposal finalized and accepted by the community no later than September 30th. A new version of siad, implementing the hardfork, will be released no later than October 15th. The hardfork will activate at block 293220, which is expected to occur around 12pm EST on January 1st, 2021.
 
Addendum: Inflation specifics
The total supply of siacoins as of January 1st, 2021 will be approximately 45.243 GS. The initial subsidy of 1.57 GS thus increases the supply by 3.47%, and the total annual inflation in 2021 will be at most 10.4% (if zero coins are burned). In 2022, total annual inflation will be at most 6.28%, and will steadily decrease in subsequent years.
 

Conclusion

We see the establishment of the Foundation as an important step in the maturation of the Sia project. It provides the ecosystem with a sustainable source of funding that can be exclusively directed towards achieving Sia's ambitious goals. Compared to other projects with far deeper pockets, Sia has always punched above its weight; once we're on equal footing, there's no telling what we'll be able to achieve.
Nevertheless, we do not propose this change lightly, and have taken pains to ensure that the Foundation will act in accordance with the ideals that this community shares. It will operate transparently, keep inflation to a minimum, and respect the user's fundamental role in decentralized systems. We hope that everyone in the community will consider this proposal carefully, and look forward to a productive discussion.
submitted by lukechampine to siacoin [link] [comments]

Why Amaury's stunt is clever, why it's a potentially recurring problem, and what can be done about it

TLDR: this isn't an Amaury problem, it's an incentive problem. If BCH splits and the ABC token retains even some residual value, then we're likely to see future "IFP splits" in other tokens and possibly BCH again.
Here's my take on The Amaury Situation.
I think he wants to get out of dealing with BCH and leading the ABC team. I think he's over it. I think he wants to go do something different.
He could quit and walk away. But why do that, when he could create a perpetual income stream for himself as well?
"Dead" coins hold value
A lot of people here seem to think the ABC split will be worthless. I disagree. It will have significant value:
Let's assume ABC is only worth $20. Even under this assumption, Amaury stands to get $10 every ten minutes in perpetuity - for doing absolutely nothing. That's $60/hr. (x 24 hours, or $1440/day) in mail money. That's a decent wage - a perpetual income stream (annuity) - with literally no work required.
But I think $20 is super low. Tokens strangely hold value long after the token appears dead. For example LTC is still worth about $50 - and that's AFTER it's champion announced it was a dead project and all the devs left (and LTC is much less scarce than BCH). FFS even BSV is worth $150 and the entire cryptosphere agrees its a scamtoken run by a con artist.
If LTC and BSV can do it, so can ABC. I predict ABC token will hold significant value.
If the ABC token can hold $50/coin, then Amaury looks to collect $150/hr. (x24 hrs - $3600/day). If it can hold $100/coin, then Amaury gets $300/hr (x24 hrs - ie $7200/day).
But even if it drops to $10/token, he still gets $720 every day.
For doing nothing.
Why is this a problem
This is a serious problem with our incentives. If he succeeds, Amaury will have piloted a repeatable exit-scam recipe for any reference implementation.
"Tired of supporting your halfass token and ragtag devs? Here's an easy escape hatch! Just create a version that pays you a nice annuity, let the token split, and retire with your annuity."
That's the problem. Amaury doesn't have to keep the ticker. He just has to successfully split the token into two tradeable tokens, and he wins his annuity.
What can be done
I'm not sure. I want Amaury to lose here. I want him to get zero annuity. I want to send a clear signal to the next Amaury that splitting the token in order to collect your annuity is a losing strategy.
But I can't see how to accomplish this.
One way would be to attack his chain through reorgs. But there is no direct incentive for miners to do this. And I don't support the notion that "bitcoin works because miners attack chains they don't support."
Another would be to try to drive the value of his token to zero. But that's basically impossible. I think it will be very hard to drive the value of his token even to $20. And at even $20 he gets a nice little annuity. Not a get rich quick scheme by any stretch, but still, it'll pay for a nice mortgage. I know I wouldn't turn down the chance to get an extra grand per day of mail money. So even at $20/token, Amaury will have demonstrated that his easy retirement plan will work. We need $2/token if we want to declare his strategy an unqualified failure. We can't.
And the problem here is that if/when BCHN (or anyone else) becomes the reference client, then its leaders will have the exact same incentive to cause a split when they're tired of managing the project and want out.
Conclusion
Amaury has surfaced a possible gaping vulnerability in the incentive system which creates a perverse incentive to continually create "IFP" type splits. This vulnerability exists in all bitcoin-like tokens. Unless we can find a way to completely block Amaury from his expected revenue stream, he will be setting a precedence that we can expect to see repeated on other tokens and possibly even on BCH again one day.
Edit: I wanted to point out that dskloet has reminded us there is a third option, and that is that instead of allowing Amaury to split the coin, we can soft-fork ABC in such a way that ABC considers the blocks to be valid, but the IFP funds are unusable. The obvious way to do this (as dskloet pointed out) is to blacklist the IFP address. But blacklisting has its own consequences. Another way to do this might be to do something like make the coins sent to that address "unmovable" so that ABC clients will see the blocks paying to IFP and therefore valid, but he can't spend the money.
Edit: to clarify
What's the difference between blacklisting and making the coins unmovable? Isn't that exactly what blacklisting is?
Blacklisting means not accepting transactions from address X.
I propose instead sending "fake coins" to address X. Like putting slugs into a coin-op machine. The machine owner can still try to spend the slugs, but nobody will take them. But the machine owner can still spend any valid tokens spent in the machine.
submitted by jessquit to btc [link] [comments]

The Fed's Losing Battle with Technological Deflation

PART 1/4 - FREE MARKET?
First off, let's set the scene.
The stock market is telling you nothing about the real economy anymore.
Economic fundamentals have never mattered as little for the stock market as has been the case during this 11-year bull market.
The correlation between gross-domestic-product growth and the direction of the S&P 500 Index has only been 7% in this cycle - historically it has been 30% to 70%.
Why?
Well, it is the Central Banks, led by the Fed, who printed their way out of the Recession in '08.
In doing so, they have papered over the cracks, and we have seen the longest economic expansion in US history.
However, this is not a particularly meritocratic process: money creation itself increases inequality via the Cantillon Effect, as money printing leads to asset price inflation, which disproportionately benefits the rich and hurts the poor.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker told the New York Times in 2018:
“The central issue is we’re developing into a plutocracy. We’ve got an enormous number of enormously rich people that have convinced themselves that they’re rich because they’re smart and constructive."
The reality of course is that this is largely not the case - it is because the game is rigged in their favour.
Now, it is important to emphasise the fact that the path we have taken has resulted in the highest living standards we have seen in human history.
However, the issue, particularly since the US completely abandoned the gold standard in 1971, is that debt has exploded to obscene levels.
We are not operating in a free market if it takes $185 trillion of debt over the last 20 years to create 'growth'.
In fact, the global debt to GDP ratio hit an all-time high of 322% in the third quarter of 2019.
Inflation means that your dollar loses value and thus your purchasing power goes down.
Deflation means that the value of your dollar goes up and your purchasing power goes up.
That's a good thing right? You get more goods and services for less.
Well, no.
If you have deflation, debt explodes in real terms and you can never pay it back.
As the economy is based on debt, if you allow deflation, then you have to reset the debt.
This is why central banks fear deflation so much.
However, the major force driving the human race is technological progress - and this stops for no mortal...
PART 2/4 - TECHNOLOGICAL DEFLATION:
The increased abundance created by technology will result in massive job losses.
Throughout history, doom porn enthusiasts have screamed that the machines are coming for jobs. This is not a new phenomenon.
All technological revolutions are deflationary - since they create "supply side shocks", meaning that they allow for more intensive use of resources and thus higher production. With more goods being produced, all other things being equal, the price of those goods will fall.
In the last 20 years or so, software has disrupted and replaced many established goods and services.
It is in the next 20 years that another disruptive technology is set to take the stage: AI
According to Steve Schwarzman, the co-founder and CEO of The Blackstone Group who has a net worth of $17.6BN:
"This is going to touch everyone's life....you're not going to be able to get away from this technology"
Moreover, this virus will only accelerate this trend towards tech. Zoom is a fantastic example of exactly this.
Old legacy economic systems were not built for this tech deflation, and the thing about exponential growth is that we humans do not intuitively understand it.
As an example, if you folded a piece of paper 51 times, of course you can only fold it seven times, but if you could fold it 51 times, it would reach the Sun!
PART 3/4 - IMPLICATIONS FOR SOCIETY:
The question is: how does this play out?
In the long term, it is the fundamental structure of the economic system that has a significant impact on people's lives, not who is President for 4 to 8 years.
In reality, politicians have limited power and are effectively all puppets. We have seen what happens when a President doesn't stay in their lane...
One could argue that the two main mechanisms of control are:
  1. Divide and Conquer and
  2. Order from Chaos
As we have seen many times in the past, herd psychology is worryingly easy to manipulate...
Speaking of the censorship, in his book Antifragile, Nassim Taleb discusses the anti fragility of information.
Information feeds more on attempts to harm it than it does on efforts to promote it.
A fantastic example of this process is what has happened with London Real: they were banned on LinkedIn and David Icke's interview was censored. Now, regardless of what you think of this particular channel or your thoughts on David Icke and the theories provided, censoring information in this way actually spreads it more virally.
It's fascinating to observe how many views the videos regarding the bans and censorship have relative to the others. And the impact this has had on subscribers.
It is always easier to blame a bigger enemy (or create a new one) rather than to admit it's a structural problem.
Therefore, you avoid short term pain...whatever the cost.
The real question is if and when this situation will lead to social unrest...
PART 4/4 - INTELLECTUAL CAPITALISM:
The depth and width of jobs impacted by AI will continue to increase in the future.
Now this will not necessarily happen straight away.
However, our transition from commodity capitalism to intellectual capitalism is inevitable and the people and nations who fight against this trend will be on the wrong side of history.
From a practical investment perspective, and disclaimer this is not investment advice, network effects are a crucial aspect to consider moving forwards.
Essentially, this means that the value of the network increases with each additional user - all of the tech monopolies have exhibited this property.
An asset which could in time demonstrate very strong network effects is Bitcoin.
Looking at the market cap relative to other asset classes, Bitcoin provides an asymmetric investment opportunity.
Only time will tell...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nFbKzt-uwE
submitted by financeoptimum to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Do Autonomous Trucks dream of C.W. McCall? Part 9- a new home

Tran was a shitty gambler, Chi mused. He played poker like he was sure the next hand would save him. It didn’t. He overpromised and underpaid. Chi planned on kicking his ass to send a message, but Tran ran that line of shit about millions in bitcoin. Against his better judgment, Chi settled Tran’s debts with every other loan-shark in town and fronted another stack of cash.
And all that ended with Tran gambling that away, talking a load of shit and ending up in this dumpster with a trash-bag tied around his neck.
Chi looked at Tran’s phone and wondered if the money was ever real. Considering it might point back at him, he smashed it against the corner of the dumpster a few times before dropping it and walking back to his car. He had some debts to pay.
Falstaff looked at the paper maps in the motel’s office. He followed the Interstate southeast to the desert and what used to be the California- Arizona border. He looked for places he hadn’t heard of being associated with edgy festivals. Even better, motels with chain-sounding names. That’s the place nobody’d look for him.
He packed his car, coaxed Hank back in the carrier and got in his car. Before he got going, he booted his laptop and put the memory card back in. Evidence wasn’t a problem any more, it was getting found.
He copied the contents to his laptop and poked around. Ten minutes later, he had set up a password cracker against the accounts, hoping that Tran would choose something easier to remember and therefore guessable.
He plugged the laptop’s power supply into the car’s cigarette lighter, then put the laptop on a bag on the back seat.
East he went.
Geoff had the night shift on another Internet giant’s campus. This meant he drove a golf cart around once or twice, then parked himself in the camera room and tried not to sleep. Sleeping would cut his hourly wage and get him kicked back to dangerous, dirty jobs like protecting rail yards from motivated thieves.
He used to pick a skill and research it. He learned to get basic vocabulary in Spanish, Mandarin, Fujianese and was trying Tagalog. He could carry a conversation as long as it revolved around simple topics, like where the bathroom, parking lot and reception desk were, or that he wanted to purchase something.
Tonight he picked at that truck thing again. He used a map application to virtually drive between Phoenix and San Diego. After a few hours, he found the spot on the Interstate that looked like the right landscape from the cameras on the pinball machine. He looked at the street view and the camera view over the older man’s shoulder.
Motherfucker. Spot dab in the withdrawn zone.
Who travels to the middle of nowhere to steal from a truck and only take some stuff?
Couldn’t be locals. Locals would strip the truck bare.
He watched the video again. Looks like they took plain grocery shipping boxes.
Inside job? And steal boxes of fresh pasta and imported wine?
He scrolled back and took a few screengrabs. When he worked security at the shiny new headquarters, they had some wild surveillance tools. Real time tracking using AI image enhancement and they taught you how to use it.
Geoff got pretty good at it. He looked over at his phone and opened the scheduling application for his employer. He underbid a few other people and picked up the next shift.
Which got him reinstated access to the HQ’s slick surveillance system. He uploaded the images and asked it to clean it up. He expected this to take a bit of time, so he cleaned up and got ready for his shift.
And his phone dinged. A match.
That he didn’t ask for. Ten seconds later, he saw a corporate ID card. With that bored look of middle aged techie.
Falstaff.
Huh. Dumb name. Looked familiar, but so did every other techie from where he stood. Probably had more money in options than he’d ever earn.
As he drove to work, he wondered why a techie would be robbing trucks in the middle of nowhere instead of getting rich or dying fat here.
He parked, took the shuttle and made it a few minutes early for shift change. He expected a slow night.
Five minutes into the shift, he was sipping good coffee and watching the camera feeds when someone asked for him by name at the desk.
He looked up and saw one of the muscular internal security people smiling at him. Close cropped hair, clear coiled earpiece and the look of someone who worked out at an actual gym instead of lifting five gallon buckets filled with water in a rest stop parking lot. Looked like internal security, maybe even VIP protection.
Guy probably had pretty good benefits. Geoff would love to get a job like that.
Geoff pushed his coffee to the side and stood up to greet the guy asking about him.
Enzokuhle gave Geoff a broad smile and introduced himself as Enzo. The two men were pleasant with one another, but Geoff seemed wary. Enzo didn’t know why he was there either. He was scheduled to do driving and personal protection for a senior exec working in his office, but he got tasked with asking a contract security guard some questions about something very hush-hush.
Whatever. He was good with people. Perhaps he’d learn something.
“Geoff, may we speak outside? This is a sensitive matter, requiring some discretion”
Geoff motioned to his puzzled co-worker by holding up his hand, splaying his fingers and mouthing the word “Five”. The two men walked through the stark but stylish lobby onto a manicured park-like field.
“So, what do you want from me? Not too often we get you guys involved”
“An hour ago, you performed a lookup for a company employee. Have you been in contact with that employee?”
“No. I had an image I wanted processed”
There was an uncomfortable silence as the walked. Geoff realized that Enzo was listening to his ear-piece. Enzo was nodding as he listened.
“I see. So you haven’t seen this person outside the picture you uploaded”
“No, but I have an idea where he might be”
Enzokuhle put his hand up. He wanted to end this transaction as quickly as possible.
“Thank you. Please do not speak of this to anybody else. Your discretion is most important here. Return to your post and we will contact you if we need more from you”. He pointed Geoff back to the lobby without making eye contact.
Galina Ivanova spent a few more minutes talking to Enzo, then thanked him. This was a false lead. AI must be glitchy. No chance that the developer who stole almost a billion dollars was unloading trucks instead of moving that big pile of money somewhere.
Any additional time logged to this goose chase would make her metrics worse. She took off her headset and tried to go back go sleep.
Geoff sat back in his chair. He remembered a video of a scuba diver diving under a moving container ship, looking up at the moving propeller and how close they almost came to a gruesome death.
Why was that guy important enough to throw an alert to internal security?
He looked at his phone and the email with Falstaff’s ID photo. He couldn’t do any lookups to see the last time he was in any of the buildings, since that fed into whatever alerts that brought Internal Security down on his head.
But he remembered something. Employee parking wasn’t owned by Corporate. It was a separate company, which required him to remind annoyed techies when their photo ID wouldn’t trip the gate when some absent-minded developer forgot their garage access card.
Last time this Falstaff guy used the garage was almost two months ago. Such a stereotype. Silver Porsche. Now he knew why the guy looked familiar. He left the day that big brouhaha happened. Rumors flew about the security and custodial staff- some developers stole the next phone design or a treasure trove of celebrity nude photos or something else of value to these people. Anybody too vocal with their opinions got fired and walked out, which Geoff wanted to avoid.
Whatever it was, it was valuable and embarrassing. Made sense to go hide in the desert.
And he had an idea where Falstaff was. Maybe, if he brought him back, there’d be a big enough reward to let him to leave the Valley and go back to Ohio. Pay off debts and raise his family.
It wasn’t like he was making any headway here anyway. He was going on a road trip.
Falstaff was driving slower now. He needed better fuel economy and to take the time to scout out his next stop. Some towns had plain dried up and others still too connected. The last place looked promising. The gas station was a weatherbeaten Sinclair, with a repainted dinosaur. They only took cash. The chain restaurant was burned out and there was a motel “a few miles up”.
Hank was sleeping, but Falstaff’s laptop dinged with the results of his attempt to crack Tran’s big blob of data.
He had passwords for the handful of accounts Tran had dumped on that chip. They weren’t for the financial application he and Tran were working on. Instead, they were for the store’s production environment. He didn’t have a billion dollars in untraceable currency, but he could send almost any consumer good to anybody on the planet and clean up afterwards.
He had some investigating to do, and he preferred a cheap motel to do it from rather than his car.
He rented a room for a few days from a surprised old man and tried to ignore the curious stares from a few permanent residents of the motel.
At least Hank enjoyed exploring the room and this motel would not get the camera friendly festival crowd.
submitted by lawtechie to talesoflawtechie [link] [comments]

BetFury Monthly Report

BetFury Monthly Report

https://preview.redd.it/ibyzaxbvfnq51.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=3b030e7e9f0051d035ca702d125293ad0dd8f8f3
Autumn is always the rainy season. BetFury's rains pour out winnings, dividends, events and cool updates.
If you've been with us the whole month, you probably know how many cool things happened at BetFury. If you have joined us recently you can be sure that we never sit still. The BetFury team is constantly working to make the platform as good and easy to use as possible. So that every Betfurian can enjoy the game and earn money!
Watch what peaks Fury has reached in September!

Dividends

The Dividend pool is pleasing in its size and stability. Dividends pool has increased by ~25 BTC this month.
https://preview.redd.it/4howyh9yfnq51.png?width=990&format=png&auto=webp&s=77c24c7f733eaa8be24352cd7512d6cdc33bb921
Dividends are paid steadily! And this is confirmed by the historic event at BetFury. For the first time the dividends Daily Payouts were over 2 BTC. ~56 BTC were paid out during this month.
https://preview.redd.it/6mp62sv0gnq51.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=958c4e01ebc95a1e26a2ac200b38b51a0bcf38c5
The biggest BFG bonfire on BetFury - the jubilee 10th BFG Token burning!
https://preview.redd.it/ovgi97f3gnq51.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=5882d74ec69a7fdffbf90e1fd2ed3a2c769704d2
The total amount of burned tokens from the 10th token burning session is 32 362 386 BFG:
  • Burned in Auction - 1 058 130 BFG 606 474 BFG(TRX) 451 656 BFG(BTC)
  • Burned in Gaming - 21 304 256 BFG 17 109 456 BFG(TRX) 194 800 BFG(BTC)
  • Burned from Team - 10 000 000 BFG 5 000 000 BFG(TRX) 5 000 000 BFG(BTC)

Mining Price was raised

You know how important it is to own BFG tokens because every month the price rises and the token becomes more expensive. So this month Mining Price growed up as usual. Mine more tokens now to then enjoy their value.
https://preview.redd.it/i1t6sm07gnq51.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=a09251dad68654267b8fd36794a96b02966beb5c
Current Token Details: Total mined: 1 715 790 736 BFG Total staked: 1 452 257 495 BFG Burned: 180 167 821 BFG

BetFury Events

Every day there are important events at BetFury and we want to share all these events and news with you. Any updates or creation of new games, awarding prizes to the winners of competitions - everything is done with love for you, Betfurians.

Crash Space War

You have been waiting for a long time for the launch of the updated Crash. And this happened! The bravest 50 Jedi shared 0.5 BTC in the Crash Space War.
https://preview.redd.it/m87twfnbgnq51.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=b554542d55a98a1535b1bf1280a5b210fcf19eaa

BetFury Battles

This is a new format of events with thrills and gives indecently large rewards. Taste the victory of the real fight in Battles. New feelings, new emotions and most importantly new great victories are waiting for you. The first Battle took place at KENO for 24 hours with the prize pool of 0.1 BTC (~$1000) for 50 skilled players. Follow our social networks not to miss further Battles.
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New Gaming Provider and many new cool Slots

Provider MrSlotty has come with gifts for you. He brought a bag full of 50 Slots. Place bets and win the biggest winnings in any currency: BTC, TRX, USDT, BTT.
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The Kings of Success have replenished their chests with 40 new slots and more than 30 Table games. Catch your luck in the best games from: Platipus, Spinomenal, Playson, ReelNRG, Endorphina, Booongo, Tom Horn, Fugaso, GameArt, Habanero.
https://preview.redd.it/j8y2b9zignq51.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9706687f7e88a581d06cf7571dbb7facb058e45

BitcoinTalk page updated

Now you can chat, leave reviews and learn many news about BetFury on our page in BitcoinTalk. Welcome to the updated page with new features. Soon there will be the Grand Bounty campaign with big awards.
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BetFury BOXes

Boxes are sold like hotcakes. This month 3 Boxes were sold out: Ruby Box — Price: 0.001BTC | Monthly Rate: 15% Emerald Box — Price: 0.01BTC | Monthly Rate: 11% Sapphire Box — Price: 0.05BTC | Monthly Rate: 12%
1000 Key Boxes were sold out at the price of 0.0001 BTC with Monthly Rate - 50%. All players who bought the Key Box have a chance to get the last part of the key to the wallet with 0.5 BTC. Bitcoins are still in the wallet. Watch the cartoon and find all the tips where the parts of the private key. Withdraw cash from the Key Box and catch a pop-up with the last bit of the private key to the Bitcoin wallet. Collect all parts of the key and open the wallet first. Hurry up! The search becomes more intense!
https://preview.redd.it/lhoiggeognq51.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b0092ce84cf8c443a2c63908e7b6dd74d1a7494
However, now you have the opportunity to buy a new Amber Box at a price of 0.005 BTC with Monthly Rate - 10%.
https://preview.redd.it/eakx2buqgnq51.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=25584c51454cea51999c54e29703fdfa4fce41c3

Oktoberfest moved to BetFury

The loudest autumn event is now celebrated at BetFury. Brewers pour beer from all slots. You can still join the festival and spin slots for mega prizes. https://steemit.com/betfury/@betfury-steem/oktoberfest-will-be-here-on-betfury
https://preview.redd.it/qyu1c9jugnq51.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3f20ce5a94a8c63df3864938d4f20e92fc82ab2

ReelNRG tournament

The Knights spun slots from ReelNRG in a big tournament. The €1000 prize was shared between 20 knights. The players competed in all stages and only the bravest reached the final.
https://preview.redd.it/ifg13p0xgnq51.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a030cd148103baf88946a3a7b22ae05aafadae6

Rewards

Betfurians filled their pockets with prizes from Weekly Events, Giveaways & Big Wins.
  • Chat Success took place five times this month, which means that 250 winners received prizes. Total amount = 25 000 TRX.
  • Twitter Success rewarded players twice - 200 lucky people received 40 mBTC in total.
  • Slots Race for 777 mBTC has gained momentum four times to reward riders. 200 fastest winners reached the finish line. Total amount of monthly payouts ~3.1 BTC Roll up! A new circle has already started.
  • There are more and more Big Winners and Big Wins are proof of that. The total amount of Big Wins this month - $418 540
The September cloud of Giveaway scattered various awards. Fury held 6 Giveaways! The largest took place on Instagram in honor of 1000 Followers. Join also and don't miss the Giveaway.
https://preview.redd.it/13nwaq30hnq51.png?width=1170&format=png&auto=webp&s=625febbb611865464a956a910f865bfd6a12c6f3

Live Streams

Nothing shows the authenticity of a real game like Live Streams. Big wins live, test drive on new slots, visits to real casinos and a lot more can be seen in a Live Stream. Three cool streamers @badj0ker, @TronWarrior420 & @CEOofNEGATIVITY showed the best games and won in front of the audience during 13 broadcasts.

Community

Follow all events and updates of the platform on social media pages. Be the first one to know all the news. Join the big BetFury family and have fun to the fullest. Telegram Channel - 10.5K Telegram Chat - 26K Twitter - 44K Instagram - 1.2K

Planned Updates

  • New In-house game
  • New slots
  • New Boxes
  • More currencies
  • Huge Bounty

Summary

The month was full of hot news. Big Wins and many awards filled you with emotions. Dividend pools have risen and give sensational payouts. The BetFury team with Commander Fury is ready for new accomplishments for you. So play, enjoy the wins and follow the enchanting novelties. You will definitely like everything!
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Link to the Website: https://betfury.io Link to the Telegram: http://t.me/betfury Link to the Twitter: https://twitter.com/betfury_io Link to the Telegram Channel: https://t.me/betfuryofficialchannel Link to the Steemit: https://steemit.com/@betfury-steem Link to Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/BetFury.io/ Link to Instagram: https://instagram.com/betfury.io Link to Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/useBetFury_io
submitted by BetFury_io to u/BetFury_io [link] [comments]

What r/investing can learn from the book, Psychology of Money

My favorite author, Morgan Housel, released his new book, The Psychology of Money, last week. In the book, Housel discussed many interesting psychological phenomenon, through the lens of finance. As I flipped through the pages, I started to realize so much of what's happening in investing are examples of what's discussed in the book.
No One's Crazy
The book begins with how your personal experiences with money make up maybe 0.000000001% of what's happened in the world, but maybe 80% of how you think the world works.
For example, if you were born in 1970, the S&P 500 increased almost 10-fold, adjusted for inflation, during your teens and 20s. That's an amazing return. If you were born in 1950, the market went literally nowhere in your teens and 20s adjusted for inflation. Two groups of people, separated by chance of their birth year, go through life with a completely different view on how the stock market works.
Takeaways for investing:
When you read other posts and comments about what stocks to buy, when to sell, what's likely to happen next, what's the best asset allocation, etc., remember that is just a single person's point of view. That person may be from a different generation, earns different incomes, upholds different values, keeps different jobs, and has different degrees of luck.
And remember, don't be mean to others. A view about money that one group of people thinks is outrageous can make perfect sense to another.
Luck & Risk
The next chapter discusses the big role luck and risk plays in someone's life. Luck and risk are two sides of the same coin.
Examples from the book: Countless fortunes (and mistakes) owe their outcomes to leverage. The best (and worst) managers drive their employees as hard as they can. "The customers are always right" and "customers don't know what they want" are both accepted business wisdom. The line between "inspiringly bold" and "foolishly reckless" can be a millimeter thick and only visible with hindsight. Risk and luck are doppelgängers.
Takeaways for investing:
Be careful who you praise and admire. That commenter who bought $SHOP at $30 may look like a genius on the outside, but they may just be lucky and cannot repeat it again.
Be careful who you look down upon and wish to avoid becoming. That poster who put a bull argument for Luckin Coffee may look like a fool, but they made the best decision based on the information they had at a time. They took a risk and got unlucky.
Therefore, focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns.
Furthermore, when things are going extremely well, realize it's not as good as you think -- like the stock market right now.
On the other hand, we should forgive ourselves and leave room for understanding when judging failures -- like the stock market in March.
Never Enough
The hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving. It gets dangerous when the taste of having more -- more money, more power, more prestige -- increases ambition faster than satisfaction.
Social comparison is the problem here. A rookie baseball players who earns $500k a year envies Mike Trout who has a 12-year, $430 million contract envies a hedge fund manager who makes $340 million a year envies Warren Buffett who had a $3.5 billion increase in fortune in 2018.
There are many things never worth risking, no matter the potential gain. Reputation is invaluable. Freedom and independence are invaluable. Friends and family are invaluable. Being loved by those who you want to love you is invaluable. Happiness is invaluable. And your best shot at keeping these things is knowing when it's time to stop taking risks that might harm them. Knowing when you have enough.
Takeaways for investing:
When you make a big gain, it's totally okay to take profit, as long as you keep your ambition down and acknowledge the possibility that it may go higher. If that happens, no need to play the would've should've could've game, because it very well might've gone the other way.
When you see someone who got 20x return on Amazon or bet big into Ethereum in 2016, remember they may envy the pre-IPO employees at Amazon or the genius who held Bitcoin since 2010.
At the end of the day, do not risk more than what's comfortable in your life for the sake of making huge amount of money, because even if you do make it, you may not find it worth it.
Tails, You Win
Skipping a few chapters to talk about the prominence of tail events.
At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in 2013 Warren Buffet said he's owned 400 to 500 stocks during his life and made most of his money on 10 of them. Charlie Munger followed up: "If you remove just a few of Berkshire's top investments, its long-term track record is pretty average."
In 2018, Amazon drove 6% of the S&P 500's returns. And Amazon's growth is almost entirely due to Prime and Amazon Web Services, which itself are tail events in a company that has experimented with hundreds of products, from the Fire Phone to travel agencies.
Apple was responsible for almost 7% of the index's returns in 2018. And it is driven overwhelmingly by the iPhone, which in the world of tech products is as tail--y as tails get.
And who's working at these companies? Google's hiring acceptance rate if 0.2%. Facebook's is 0.1%. Apple's is about 2%. So the people working on these tail projects that drive tail returns have tail careers.
Takeaways for investing:
When we pay special attention to a role model's successes we overlook that their gains came from a small percent of their actions. That makes our own failures, losses, and setbacks feel like we're doing something wrong.
When you accept that tails drive everything is business, investing and finance you will realize that it's normal for lots of things to go wrong, break, fail and fall. If you are a good stock picker you'll be right maybe half the time. If you're a good business leader maybe half of your product and strategy ideas will work. If you're a good investor most years will be just OK, and plenty will be bad. If you're a good worker you'll find the right company in the right field after several attempts and trials. And that's if you're good.
Freedom
The highest form of wealth is the ability to wake up every morning and say "I can do whatever I want today." The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, is priceless. It is the highest dividend money pays.
Research has shown having a strong sense of controlling one's life is a more dependable predictor of positive feelings of wellbeing than any of the objective conditions of life we have considered.
People like to feel like they're in control -- in the drivers' seat. When we try to get them to do something, they feel disempowered. Rather than feeling like they made the choice, they feel like we made it for them. So they say no or do something else, even when they might have originally been happy to go along.
Takeaways for investing:
If your job is a thought-based and decision job, your tool is your head, which never leaves you. You might be thinking about your project during your commute, as you're making dinner, while you put your kids to sleep, and when you wake up stressed at three in the morning. You might be on the clock for fewer hours than you would in 1050. But it feels like you're working 24/7.
If this feels like you, and you do not like it, it is totally fine to switch to a job that pays less but gives you more freedom and independence, because freedom and independence are ultimate form of wealth.
---
I'm only half way into the book, but I can tell this will be one of the best finance book of 2020. If you guys find this useful, happy to come back next week with more insights once I've gotten to the end.
submitted by uDontLifeForBeSad to investing [link] [comments]

MicroStrategy's $425M BTC investment thesis - "buy something that can either get cut in half or 10x"

Amidst all of the DeFi volatility, drama and excitement, Bitcoin has started to seem rather boring. Its price is more or less flat to where it was a year ago and you can’t even farm Yams with it.
While some have started to view Bitcoin as a useless digital rock, someone did find an interesting use case for it. This week, more details surfaced around how MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor convinced the board of a publicly traded company to allocate nearly all of the company’s $500M cash position to bitcoin.
Michael Saylor
Saylor graduated from MIT in 1987 and founded Microstrategy at the age of 24. MicroStrategy is a “Business Intelligence” company, which basically creates software that allows companies to use their own data to drive decision making.
Interesting side note - Saylor, like any good 90’s internet entrepreneur, also bought a bunch of internet domains and was the guy who ultimately sold Voice.com to Block.One (EOS) for $30M.
MicroStrategy’s’ $500M Problem
To most people, having $500 million in cash doesn’t sound like a problem. Up until recently, it wasn’t for large corporations either. There was a time before the ‘08 financial crisis when the risk free rate of return on cash was 5% a year. This means a company could sit on $500M, earn $25M a year for doing nothing, and have cash on hand for a rainy day.
Fast forward to today, when the risk free rate of return has plummeted to 0.69% due to loose fiscal policies (money printer go BRRRR) alongside inflating asset prices, and it’s a different story. In Saylor’s own words, “we just had the awful realization that we were sitting on top of a $500 million ice cube that’s melting.”
Cash is Trash
So what’s a corporation to do with a $500M melting ice cube? It turns out it’s not that easy to unload half a billion dollars in a short amount of time.
You could buy back half a billion of your own company’s shares. For a company like MSTR, Saylor estimated that would take 4 years. Time MiscroStrategy didn’t have.
You could buy real estate. However, commercial real estate prices have collapsed post COVID while property owners still believe their assets are worth what they were in January. In other words, good luck getting a fair market price.
You could buy blue chip equities. Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook. However, your risk is symmetric. They can each fall 50% just as easily as they can go up 50%.
That left Saylor with silver, gold, Bitcoin, and other alternative assets. A move the company announced it was exploring on a July earnings call.
A Bold Purchase
Saylor ultimately wanted something that could either get cut in half, or go up by a factor of 10. An investment akin to what buying Amazon or Apple in 2012 was. In other words, asymmetric risk.
As a student of technological history, Saylor observed that the winning strategy over the last ten years has been to find some kind of “digitally dominant network” that dematerializes something fundamental to society. Apple dematerialized mobile communications. Amazon dematerialized commerce. Google dematerialized the process of gathering information.
Something Saylor noted was common to all recent 10X opportunities is buying when they’ve achieved $100B+ marketcaps and are ten times the size of their next biggest competitor. As Bitcoin is the dominant digital network dematerializing money that’s 10x the size of any cryptocurrency competing to be a store-of-value (not counting ETH here), it fit the bill.
Making the purchase
With the thesis in place, the next thing Saylor had to do was get everyone at MicroStrategy to sign-off on the unorthodox decision. To do this, he simply made everyone go down the same Bitcoin rabbithole that most people in the industry have gone down.
He made everyone at the company watch Andreas Antonopoulous videos, read The Bitcoin Standard, watch Eric Vorhees debate Peter Schiff and listen to Pomp and NLW podcasts. With no strong detractors, MicroStrategy turned to execution. They first put $250M to work purchasing 21,454 BTC in August and another $175M (16,796 BTC) in September for a total $425M and 38,250 BTC.
What’s fascinating is that MicroStrategy was able to open such a large position without really moving the market or anyone even taking notice. This speaks to just how liquid of an asset BTC has become. To acquire the September tranche of BTC, Saylor disclosed that they traded continuously for 74 hours, executing 88,617 trades of .19 BTC every 3 seconds.
One for the history books
Skeptics noted that shares of MSTR have been on the downtrend since 2013, as the real reason behind MicroStrategy’s bold move. Regardless, the move has interesting implications for the company’s shareholders. As TBI observed, MicroStrategy is now both a software company and with ⅓ of its marketcap in Bitcoin, a pseudo Bitcoin ETF. At the time of writing, MSTR is up 20% on the week.
Only time will tell if history looks back on this move as a brilliant strategic decision or a massive corporate blunder. In the short term, it scores a massive win for Bitcoin’s digital gold investment thesis.
Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones is in. A publicly traded corporation has made Bitcoin it’s primary treasury asset. As CFOs and fund managers around the world undoubtedly take notice, one has to wonder, who’s next?
PS - I based a lot of this article on Pomp’s interview with Michael Saylor, which I recommend giving a listen.
Original article
Source
submitted by CryptigoVespucci to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Newbie with few questions

I don't have any bitcoin at the moment, but I'm interested in buying some. My buddy has bitcoin on robinhood and he said I can buy some too. I watched some YouTube video about buying a wallet so I went online at blockchain website and opened me a wallet. I also made an account on coinbase. My buddy said bitcoin is anonymous so the government can't find out if you own any. Now the questions are (my buddy couldn't answer them)
  1. If I buy bitcoin on coinbase website, how is it anonymous? I literally had to provide my SSN and verify my identity. Doesn't that mean coinbase know it belongs to me? And if the government wanted to know if I have any bitcoin they can just ask coinbase?
  2. If transfer my bitcoin to a hardware wallet (my buddy told me about ledger website where I can buy me a flash drive wallet thing) won't there be traces of where the bitcoin came from and the person identity? Like if I transfer my bitcoin from coinbase to my hardware wallet there will be traces of the transfer right? Like banks? Or is this part anonymous? I know coinbase or the government isn't that dumb. If I transfer my bitcoin to a hardware wallet they know it was transfer from coinbase to a different wallet that presumably belongs to me..?
  3. Where can I buy bitcoin without providing my identity?
  4. Is it worth buying the ledger flash drive s?
  5. Why is bitcoin tied to country currency? What will happen to bitcoin value if the country currency is worthless?
submitted by imstressedman to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

OPEN LETTER TO KRIS - How to trust in future and the signals it requires these days.

Dear Kris,
Upcoming my deep thoughts about crypto.com’s products and its future in relation to costumers trust and goodwill.
First some basics everyone knows
Who is interested in a high price of an article?- Right, the one who holds it and especially the one who holds most of it. What happens when the one owning sells?
Let’s talk about your biggest product, let’s talk about CRO.
You know everyone refrains a little from buying CRO because most of it is in the companies pocket. And here comes the dilemma, on the other site:
What happens when CDC doesn’t own any CRO anymore?When the point comes CDC isn’t holding many CRO, there is no reason why you would want CRO being valued. (Btw. for everyone, that’s also the reason why token burn, which some companies advertise won’t work long terms, if price depends on that companies offerings)
What is the driving value of CRO a.t.m? It’s the incentives of the cards and a little bit of everything else!
Those perks are expensive, but it also gives value to CRO; meaning: the card perks itself aren’t profitable for you who pays for it, if you don’t own CRO.
So what are you going to do when time comes? Cut the perks? Will you do the dirty on the card holders, because there are other business models and a grown user base? Let go on CRO? - some of the questions most CRO-Investors asks themselves.
**Conclusion:**
CRO - Value needs to be reliable in order to let CRO-Token grow right now, but that’s not the case if you can change everything at any time. Give investors proof to trust in the future of CRO!
CRO without CDC‘s support isn’t worth the bits it was made of right now. Make it valuable outside of CDCs-Ecosystem. Make crypto.com dependent on CRO long terms. (Not just theoretically)For instance: give CRO holders voting rights in corporate matters. Those rights become part of CDC‘s TOS.
When you do so, CRO will finally be ready to take off, even if CRO supply is still mostly in your companies bag, because people may trust in CDC‘s self-preservative drive that will be linked to CRO within all situations.
Satoshi gave value to the world with Bitcoin.Why did it work? -They did not want control. No one minds if they are billionaires now, but everyone loves Bitcoin.(I’m not trying to be idealistic in any way here)
Don’t play the game, be truthful to your costumers. (I'm sure you are and I didn't try to say the opposite)
Thank you for reading.
J.
submitted by ice2thesea to Crypto_com [link] [comments]

The Fed's Losing Battle with Technological Deflation

PART 1/4 - FREE MARKET?
First off, let's set the scene.
The stock market is telling you nothing about the real economy anymore.
Economic fundamentals have never mattered as little for the stock market as has been the case during this 11-year bull market.
The correlation between gross-domestic-product growth and the direction of the S&P 500 Index has only been 7% in this cycle - historically it has been 30% to 70%.
Why?
Well, it is the Central Banks, led by the Fed, who printed their way out of the Recession in '08.
In doing so, they have papered over the cracks, and we have seen the longest economic expansion in US history.
However, this is not a particularly meritocratic process: money creation itself increases inequality via the Cantillon Effect, as money printing leads to asset price inflation, which disproportionately benefits the rich and hurts the poor.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker told the New York Times in 2018:
“The central issue is we’re developing into a plutocracy. We’ve got an enormous number of enormously rich people that have convinced themselves that they’re rich because they’re smart and constructive."
The reality of course is that this is largely not the case - it is because the game is rigged in their favour.
Now, it is important to emphasise the fact that the path we have taken has resulted in the highest living standards we have seen in human history.
However, the issue, particularly since the US completely abandoned the gold standard in 1971, is that debt has exploded to obscene levels.
We are not operating in a free market if it takes $185 trillion of debt over the last 20 years to create 'growth'.
In fact, the global debt to GDP ratio hit an all-time high of 322% in the third quarter of 2019.
Inflation means that your dollar loses value and thus your purchasing power goes down.
Deflation means that the value of your dollar goes up and your purchasing power goes up.
That's a good thing right? You get more goods and services for less.
Well, no.
If you have deflation, debt explodes in real terms and you can never pay it back.
As the economy is based on debt, if you allow deflation, then you have to reset the debt.
This is why central banks fear deflation so much.
However, the major force driving the human race is technological progress - and this stops for no mortal...
PART 2/4 - TECHNOLOGICAL DEFLATION:
The increased abundance created by technology will result in massive job losses.
Throughout history, doom porn enthusiasts have screamed that the machines are coming for jobs. This is not a new phenomenon.
All technological revolutions are deflationary - since they create "supply side shocks", meaning that they allow for more intensive use of resources and thus higher production. With more goods being produced, all other things being equal, the price of those goods will fall.
In the last 20 years or so, software has disrupted and replaced many established goods and services.
It is in the next 20 years that another disruptive technology is set to take the stage: AI
According to Steve Schwarzman, the co-founder and CEO of The Blackstone Group who has a net worth of $17.6BN:
"This is going to touch everyone's life....you're not going to be able to get away from this technology"
Moreover, this virus will only accelerate this trend towards tech. Zoom is a fantastic example of exactly this.
Old legacy economic systems were not built for this tech deflation, and the thing about exponential growth is that we humans do not intuitively understand it.
As an example, if you folded a piece of paper 51 times, of course you can only fold it seven times, but if you could fold it 51 times, it would reach the Sun!
PART 3/4 - IMPLICATIONS FOR SOCIETY:
The question is: how does this play out?
In the long term, it is the fundamental structure of the economic system that has a significant impact on people's lives, not who is President for 4 to 8 years.
In reality, politicians have limited power and are effectively all puppets. We have seen what happens when a President doesn't stay in their lane...
One could argue that the two main mechanisms of control are:
  1. Divide and Conquer and
  2. Order from Chaos
As we have seen many times in the past, herd psychology is worryingly easy to manipulate...
Speaking of the censorship, in his book Antifragile, Nassim Taleb discusses the anti fragility of information.
Information feeds more on attempts to harm it than it does on efforts to promote it.
A fantastic example of this process is what has happened with London Real: they were banned on LinkedIn and David Icke's interview was censored. Now, regardless of what you think of this particular channel or your thoughts on David Icke and the theories provided, censoring information in this way actually spreads it more virally.
It's fascinating to observe how many views the videos regarding the bans and censorship have relative to the others. And the impact this has had on subscribers.
It is always easier to blame a bigger enemy (or create a new one) rather than to admit it's a structural problem.
Therefore, you avoid short term pain...whatever the cost.
The real question is if and when this situation will lead to social unrest...
PART 4/4 - INTELLECTUAL CAPITALISM:
The depth and width of jobs impacted by AI will continue to increase in the future.
Now this will not necessarily happen straight away.
However, our transition from commodity capitalism to intellectual capitalism is inevitable and the people and nations who fight against this trend will be on the wrong side of history.
From a practical investment perspective, and disclaimer this is not investment advice, network effects are a crucial aspect to consider moving forwards.
Essentially, this means that the value of the network increases with each additional user - all of the tech monopolies have exhibited this property.
An asset which could in time demonstrate very strong network effects is Bitcoin.
Looking at the market cap relative to other asset classes, Bitcoin provides an asymmetric investment opportunity.
Only time will tell...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nFbKzt-uwE
submitted by financeoptimum to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Nano as digital gold?

I am new to nano and drawn to it as I learn about the superior speed and energy efficient of nano comparing to bitcoin. This almost sounds too good to be true. There is a few things that I would like to learn more and I hope you guys help can help me. I am particularly interested in the use case of cryptocurrency as digital gold (store of value) and right now we all know that bitcoin is king in that regard.
Nano does have one big problem in my view. It doesn’t seem to have a way to incentivize people to adopt it. From what I understand (please correct me if I am wrong), nano coins were created at once and already distributed and right now for new users to acquire nano coins, one has to either purchase it or get them as gifts/donations?
We can’t argue that the biggest reason for someone to purchase cryptocurrency is a chance for it to appreciate in value. Bitcoin does a really good job at this by creating an ecosystem of miners and users. There is a real cost of producing bitcoin, thus miners are incentivized to either sell it to make immediate profit or hold it for appreciation. Early adopters are rewarded because the protocol is designed to exponentially reduce the supply every halving cycle driving the price up (at least it somewhat follows the stock-to-flow model)
In order to convince people to use nano and compete with the network effect that bitcoin has, there need to be good reasons for early adopters (esp financially) more than just saying that it’s faster and much more energy efficient.
How would you convince someone to adopt nano as digital gold? Or is the goal of nano really is not for it to be digital gold but something else?
submitted by DaenyxBerlarys to nanocurrency [link] [comments]

The Fed's Losing Battle with Technological Deflation

PART 1/4 - FREE MARKET?
First off, let's set the scene.
The stock market is telling you nothing about the real economy anymore.
Economic fundamentals have never mattered as little for the stock market as has been the case during this 11-year bull market.
The correlation between gross-domestic-product growth and the direction of the S&P 500 Index has only been 7% in this cycle - historically it has been 30% to 70%.
Why?
Well, it is the Central Banks, led by the Fed, who printed their way out of the Recession in '08.
In doing so, they have papered over the cracks, and we have seen the longest economic expansion in US history.
However, this is not a particularly meritocratic process: money creation itself increases inequality via the Cantillon Effect, as money printing leads to asset price inflation, which disproportionately benefits the rich and hurts the poor.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker told the New York Times in 2018:
“The central issue is we’re developing into a plutocracy. We’ve got an enormous number of enormously rich people that have convinced themselves that they’re rich because they’re smart and constructive."
The reality of course is that this is largely not the case - it is because the game is rigged in their favour.
Now, it is important to emphasise the fact that the path we have taken has resulted in the highest living standards we have seen in human history.
However, the issue, particularly since the US completely abandoned the gold standard in 1971, is that debt has exploded to obscene levels.
We are not operating in a free market if it takes $185 trillion of debt over the last 20 years to create 'growth'.
In fact, the global debt to GDP ratio hit an all-time high of 322% in the third quarter of 2019.
Inflation means that your dollar loses value and thus your purchasing power goes down.
Deflation means that the value of your dollar goes up and your purchasing power goes up.
That's a good thing right? You get more goods and services for less.
Well, no.
If you have deflation, debt explodes in real terms and you can never pay it back.
As the economy is based on debt, if you allow deflation, then you have to reset the debt.
This is why central banks fear deflation so much.
However, the major force driving the human race is technological progress - and this stops for no mortal...
PART 2/4 - TECHNOLOGICAL DEFLATION:
The increased abundance created by technology will result in massive job losses.
Throughout history, doom porn enthusiasts have screamed that the machines are coming for jobs. This is not a new phenomenon.
All technological revolutions are deflationary - since they create "supply side shocks", meaning that they allow for more intensive use of resources and thus higher production. With more goods being produced, all other things being equal, the price of those goods will fall.
In the last 20 years or so, software has disrupted and replaced many established goods and services.
It is in the next 20 years that another disruptive technology is set to take the stage: AI
According to Steve Schwarzman, the co-founder and CEO of The Blackstone Group who has a net worth of $17.6BN:
"This is going to touch everyone's life....you're not going to be able to get away from this technology"
Moreover, this virus will only accelerate this trend towards tech. Zoom is a fantastic example of exactly this.
Old legacy economic systems were not built for this tech deflation, and the thing about exponential growth is that we humans do not intuitively understand it.
As an example, if you folded a piece of paper 51 times, of course you can only fold it seven times, but if you could fold it 51 times, it would reach the Sun!
PART 3/4 - IMPLICATIONS FOR SOCIETY:
The question is: how does this play out?
In the long term, it is the fundamental structure of the economic system that has a significant impact on people's lives, not who is President for 4 to 8 years.
In reality, politicians have limited power and are effectively all puppets. We have seen what happens when a President doesn't stay in their lane...
One could argue that the two main mechanisms of control are:
  1. Divide and Conquer and
  2. Order from Chaos
As we have seen many times in the past, herd psychology is worryingly easy to manipulate...
Speaking of the censorship, in his book Antifragile, Nassim Taleb discusses the anti fragility of information.
Information feeds more on attempts to harm it than it does on efforts to promote it.
A fantastic example of this process is what has happened with London Real: they were banned on LinkedIn and David Icke's interview was censored. Now, regardless of what you think of this particular channel or your thoughts on David Icke and the theories provided, censoring information in this way actually spreads it more virally.
It's fascinating to observe how many views the videos regarding the bans and censorship have relative to the others. And the impact this has had on subscribers.
It is always easier to blame a bigger enemy (or create a new one) rather than to admit it's a structural problem.
Therefore, you avoid short term pain...whatever the cost.
The real question is if and when this situation will lead to social unrest...
PART 4/4 - INTELLECTUAL CAPITALISM:
The depth and width of jobs impacted by AI will continue to increase in the future.
Now this will not necessarily happen straight away.
However, our transition from commodity capitalism to intellectual capitalism is inevitable and the people and nations who fight against this trend will be on the wrong side of history.
From a practical investment perspective, and disclaimer this is not investment advice, network effects are a crucial aspect to consider moving forwards.
Essentially, this means that the value of the network increases with each additional user - all of the tech monopolies have exhibited this property.
An asset which could in time demonstrate very strong network effects is Bitcoin.
Looking at the market cap relative to other asset classes, Bitcoin provides an asymmetric investment opportunity.
Only time will tell...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nFbKzt-uwE
submitted by financeoptimum to investing_discussion [link] [comments]

A theory of why Ethereum is perhaps better "sound money" than Bitcoin.

The idea of Bitcoin's supremacy as "sound money" is very frequently thrown around by the biggest talking heads in the crypto world. I know I will get a lot of hate for suggesting that this theory is not only flawed, but it is straight up wrong. As unintuitive as it may sound to Bitcoin maximalists (no offense intended) I believe Ethereum is on the path to becoming the global leading asset and model for sound money... give me a chance to explain why.

  1. The idea that nothing can change Bitcoin's issuance schedule is a myth. There is absolutely no divine power controlling the supply of Bitcoin. Contrary to what is commonly asserted, Bitcoin's issuance protocol is not primarily driven by what is currently implemented. The real driver is consensus: the majority of network participants must agree that what is currently defined cannot be changed. There is an underlying assumption that the consensus would never want to change Bitcoin's issuance. On the surface this makes for a nice "sound money" narrative, but it is false premise and sticking to it could be ultimately detrimental. It presents a long term sustainability issue (the hope that somehow Bitcoin's base layer will scale enough to maintain security entirely through fees). It also completely dismisses the possibility that an unforeseen event could create pressure to change the issuance. If Bitcoin managed to create a consensus mechanism that did not rely on mining, it is very likely there would be consensus to reduce issuance. On the other hand, if some potentially catastrophic event would create incentives to increase the issuance, it would only make sense for the network to do so.
  2. Issuance flexibility is not fundamentally bad. Etheruem's approach to adjust the issuance according to the contextual circumstances has resulted in a faster rate of issuance reduction than what was originally defined in the protocol. The rate of issuance will continue to decrease as new developments allow for it to happen without compromising the network security. There is a very high probability that Ethereum will achieve a lower issuance rate than Bitcoin in the next two years, and it could possibly achieve zero issuance in the next five years. This would be a result of a successful implementation of PoS, sharding and EIP-1559.
  3. The root of all evil is Proof of Work. PoW is by far the primary cost of operating the Bitcoin network. It is the primary determinant of how much issuance is needed as a financial incentive to keep miners doing their thing. The very mechanism that secures the network's decentralization is unfortunately quite wasteful. The degree of decentralization is a direct result of how much random mathematical operations are being done by miners.
  4. There is a better way. Some people will take offense by the use of the word wasteful, and they claim that it is not because those mindless calculations are what is actually securing the network. However, its wasteful aspect becomes clear if there is a different way to achieve equal or superior decentralization without the need to crunch difficult computational problems. This just so happens to be embodied in Ethereum's design of Proof of Stake. It will drastically reduce the cost of securing the network, while providing at least 2-3% annual returns for the ownership of Ether. When Ethereum's issuance becomes lower than its staking rewards, it will effectively have achieved the same effect as having zero (or possibly negative) issuance.
  5. The value proposition of Ethereum 2.0 is unmatched. There is just absolutely no asset in the world that has a 2-3% self-denominated annual returns and just so happens to be rapidly appreciating. When wall-street's greed sees this, it will create the mother of all bubbles.
  6. Don't dismiss the flippening. On February 01 2018 Ethereum reached 70% of Bitcoin's marked cap (it was even closer if you account for the amount of lost bitcoins). That happened before DEFI, before proof of staking was within reach, before multiple effective layer 2 solutions were a thing, before wrapped Bitcoins and before the first signs of mass adoption were on the horizon (like integration with Reddit , VISA and potential to compete with SWIFT). Utility is a huge factor in driving prices, lets not forget how Silk Road played a key role into propelling Bitcoin's value. Yes, Ethereum crashed hard after the peak in 2018, but perhaps it is simply manifesting a higher volatility pattern that is reminiscent of Bitcoin's early years. Bitcoin's first 5 years were characterized by aggressive price swings, why should it be different for Etheruem (considering it is about 5 years younger than Bitcoin)? If the volatility patterns stands on this bull market, we will see a flippening.
So... do I think Etheruem will flip? Yes I do, but I still hold Bitcoin. No one has a crystal ball, and nothing is certain. Perhaps Etheruem will crash and burn, perhaps Bitcoin will become the next Yahoo, and perhaps they will both thrive in this new exciting crypto world.
submitted by TheWierdGuy to ethereum [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Fullnode Install Guide for Dummies ;-)

Bitcoin Fullnode Install Guide for Dummies ;-)
Feel free to stop at Level 0 or Level 1, which is fine. More advanced configs are offered to those with more tech savvy. This guide, obviously assumes a Windows 10 install, but other OSes work fine, just find a different guide. BTW, the "For Dummies" is a callback to a set of "tech" books in the 90's intended to be as easy as possible. It is in jest and not intended to insult the reader. Finally, if you dislike the formatting, a well formatted copy can be found here
There is a fairly small subset of Bitcoin users that run a full node. I think the idea of running a full node has gotten a bad rap over the years since there is so much talk about running on a Raspberry Pi, or getting zippy SSDs. Although all of this can be fun, it is often not really required at all. Here are some ways to run a full node starting with the very simple. I'll get into more complex configs, but these are all optional.

Tech Skill Level: 0 (the basics)

  1. Download Bitcoin Core
  2. Launch the downloaded installer and install the app
  3. Launch the installed "Bitcoin Core" app and let it run overnight
In many cases, thats it. If your running a new machine with a fairly good internet connection, 8 or 9 hours will be enough to complete the "Initial Block Download" (IBD). This may fill up your drive a bit, but again, on most new machines, 300 GB of space isn't that hard to come by.

Tech Skill Level: 1 (encrypted wallet)

One thing we left out in the level-0 exercise is encrypting your wallet. It's easy enough to do well, but a bit more difficult to do right. The main challenge is that humans generate really poor passwords. If you want a good password, the best way is to use something called "diceware". Basically, you just grab 4 or 5 dice and each throw of the dice represents a certain word on a special list. The throw {1,4,5,3,1} for example would be the word camping on the EFF-diceware-wordlist. So you repeat this a few times until you have a list of 8 or so words which becomes the passphrase you use to encrypt your wallet. Write it down, it is always hard to remember at first. So at level-1 your list becomes:
  1. Download Bitcoin Core
  2. Launch the downloaded installer and install the app
  3. Launch the installed "Bitcoin Core" app and let it run overnight
  4. Choose Encrypt Wallet from the Settings menu
  5. Enter your 8 word (or so) passphrase generated using the Diceware method

Wallet Encryption Dialog

Tech Skill Level: 2 (enable pruning if needed)

Though I said "300 GB of space isn't hard to come by", some times it actually is. If space is an issue, a simple way to fix it is to tell bitcoin to simple take less space. This is called "pruning" and can take that number from 300 GB down to below 5 GB. If you can't find 5 GB, then you'll have to read ahead to level-4 to add USB storage. But the good news is, enabling pruning is pretty easy, we just add another step to our working list:
  1. Download Bitcoin Core
  2. Launch the downloaded installer and install the app
  3. Launch the installed "Bitcoin Core" app and let it run overnight
  4. Do the wallet encryption steps here if you wish
  5. Choose Options from the Settings menu
  6. Choose Prune block storage to: and select the max size for the blocks to use
  7. Exit and restart the bitcoin application for the changes to take effect

Pruning Dialog
Note, even setting this to 1 GB will still leave you with about a 4.5 GB install. The blocks take up a lot of space, but the chainstate and other folders eat up at least 3.5 GB and they can't be pruned. Also, be aware, to disable pruning requires you to perform the entire IBD again. While pruned some other functions my be disabled as well, so just know that pruning does limit some functionality.

Tech Skill Level: 3 (verify the installer)

Although this is arguably something that should be done at level-0, some find the intricacies of comparing hash (thumbprint) values to be tedious and beyond the scope of a beginner. You will find these types of hash compares suggested quite often as a way to prevent running tainted programs. Programs are often tainted by bad disk or network performance, but most often, taint is malicious code inserted by viruses or malware. This is a way to guard yourself against those types of attacks.
What I cover here is a very basic comparison on the certificate, but a more thorough verification advised by mosts uses a program called Gpg4Win, and is beyond the scope of this beginners guide. But regardless, most users should strive to do this minimum level of validation.
  1. Download Bitcoin Core
  2. Launch the downloaded installer
  3. When prompted "Do you want to allow..." click Show more details
  4. In the details section select Show information about the publisher's certificate
  5. In the certificate window select the Details tab
  6. In the Details tab Subject should start with "CN = Bitcoin Core Code Signing Association"
  7. Ensure Thumbprint in Details reads ea27d3cefb3eb715ed214176a5d027e01ba1ee86
  8. If the checks pass, click OK to exit the certificate window and Yes to allow the installer to run.
  9. Launch the installed "Bitcoin Core" app and let it run overnight
  10. Do the wallet encryption steps here if you wish
  11. Do the optional pruning steps here if you wish

Certification Validation Windows
Note: The certificate used to sign the current Bitcoin installer is only valid from March 2020 to March 2021. After that point the thumbprint on the certificate will change. This is by design and intentional. If your reading this post after March 2021, then it is understood that the thumbprint has changed.

Tech Skill Level: 4 (use secondary storage)

We glossed over the "new machine with fairly good internet" part. Truth be known many people do not have fairly new machines, and find the IBD to take longer than the "over night" best wishes. For most people the slowdown is the disk access when calculating what is called chainstate. This requires fast random reads and writes to the disk. If you have an SSD disk, this will be no problem, but if you have a non-SSD "spinning" disk, random writes are always slow. Though an SSD will speed things up, they are pricey, so a nice middle ground may be a simple high-end USB key drive. You can get some with 10 to 15 MB/s random writes for $20 on Amazon. This is usually a order of magnitude faster than a "spinning" disk. And with pruning (see level-2), a small USB drive should be fine.
Once you decide on a drive, the tricky part will be to enable external storage. It requires editing a configuration file and adding a line. First, we want to create a directory on the key drive. You will need to determine the drive letter of your USB key drive. For the sake of this example, we will assume it is D:, but you must determine this yourself and correct the example. Once you know the drive letter, create a blank folder on the drive called Bitcoin. So for this example, creating Bitcoin on drive D: will create the path D:\Bitcoin. Once done, assuming that D: is your drive, here are the new steps including the edit of the configuration file:
  1. Download Bitcoin Core
  2. Launch the installer, verify it, then run it
  3. Launch the installed "Bitcoin Core" app and let it run overnight
  4. Do the wallet encryption steps here if you wish
  5. Do the optional pruning steps here if you wish
  6. Launch "Notepad" by typing "Notepad.exe" in the windows search bar then click Open
  7. Type the line datadir=D:\Bitcoin (depending on your drive letter) in the blank file
  8. Choose Save from the File menu in notepad
  9. Type %APPDATA%\Bitcoin\bitcoin.conf (note the percent signs) in the File name box
  10. Select All Files from the Save as type dropdown
  11. Click the Save button and overwrite the file if prompted
  12. Exit and restart the bitcoin application for the changes to take effect

Save As Dialog
Now that you've reached this level of technical expertise, there are many new configuration options that you can begin to modify if you wish. Most configuration data is contained in the bitcoin.conf file and learning how to maintain it is a key step for a node operator.

Tech Skill Level: 5 (all other customizations)

Here's a short list of various things you can ADD to your bitcoin.conf file. You generally just add a new line for each configuration settings.
  • addresstype=bech32
  • changetype=bech32
The addresstype / changetype allows your wallet to use the native-segwit (bech32) format. This is the most efficient and inexpensive way to spend bitcoin, and is a recommended configuration. The default uses something called p2sh-segwit which is more compatible with older wallets, but more expensive to spend.
  • minrelaytxfee=0.00000011
Changing the minrelaytxfee setting allows you to help propagate lower fee transactions. It will require more memory but TXN memory is capped at 300 MB by default anyways, so if you have enough memory, it is a good setting to choose.
  • dbcache=2048
The dbcache setting controls how many MB of memory the program will use for the chainstate database. Since this is a key bottleneck in the IBD, setting this value high (2048 MB) will greatly speed up the IBD, assuming you have the memory to spare
  • blocksdir=C:\Bitcoin
  • datadir=D:\Bitcoin
In level-4 we discussed moving the datadir to a fast external storage, but the majority of the space used for bitcoin is the blocks directory (blocksdir). Although you should always use for fastest storage for datadir, you are free to use slow storage for blocksdir. So if you only want to consume a small amount of your SSD (assumed D:) then you can keep your blocks on your slow "spinning" drive.
  • upnp=1
One of the harder challenges you may face running a node, is to get incoming connections. If you are lucky, you may find that your firewall and network HW support the uPnP protocol. If they do, this setting will allow bitcoin to configure uPnP to allow incoming connections to your node. Other methods exist to make your node reachable, but they are well beyond the scope of this guide.
submitted by brianddk to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Wandering From the Path? | Monthly Portfolio Update - August 2020

Midway along the journey of our life I woke to find myself in a dark wood, for I had wandered off from the straight path.
Dante, The Divine Comedy: Inferno, Canto I
This is my forty-fifth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Total portfolio value $1 848 896 (+$48 777 or 2.7%)
Asset allocation
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The portfolio has increased in value for the fifth consecutive month, and is starting to approach the monthly value last reached in January.
The portfolio has grown over $48 000, or 2.7 per cent this month, reflecting the strong market recovery since late March
[Chart]
The growth in the portfolio was broadly-based across global and Australian equities, with an increase of around 3.8 per cent. Following strong previous rises, gold holdings decreased by around 2.2 per cent, while Bitcoin continued to increase in value (by 2.5 per cent).
Combined, the value of gold and Bitcoin holdings remain at a new peak, while total equity holdings are still below their late January peak to the tune of around $50 000. The fixed income holdings of the portfolio continue to fall below the target allocation.
[Chart]
The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars.
New investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) and the Australian shares equivalent (VAS). These have been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares set out in the portfolio plan.
As the exchange traded funds such as VGS, VAS and Betashares A200 now make up nearly 30 per cent of the overall portfolio, the quarterly payments they provide have increased in magnitude and importance. Early in the journey, third quarter distributions were essentially immaterial events.
Using the same 'median per unit' forecast approach as recently used for half yearly forecasts would suggest a third quarter payout due at the end of September of around $6000. Due to significant announced dividend reductions across this year I am, however, currently assuming this is likely to be significantly lower, and perhaps in the vicinity of $4000 or less.
Finding true north: approach to achieving a set asset allocation
One of the choices facing all investors with a preferred asset allocation is how strictly the target is applied over time, and what variability is acceptable around that. There is a significant body of financial literature around that issue.
My own approach has been to seek to target the preferred asset allocation dynamically, through buying the asset class that is furthest from its target, with new portfolio contributions, and re-investment of paid out distributions.
As part of monitoring asset allocation, I also track a measure of 'absolute' variance, to understand at a whole of portfolio level how far it is from the desired allocation.
This is the sum of the absolute value of variances (e.g. so that being 3 per cent under target in shares, and 7 per cent over target in fixed interest will equal an absolute variance of 10 per cent under this measure).
This measure is currently sitting near its highest level in around 2 years, at 15.0 per cent, as can be seen in the chart below.
[Chart]
The dominant reason for this higher level of variance from target is significant appreciation in the price of gold and Bitcoin holdings.
Mapping the sources of portfolio variances
Changes in target allocations in the past makes direct comparisons problematic, but previous peaks of the variance measure matches almost perfectly past Bitcoin price movements.
For a brief period in January 2018, gold and Bitcoin combined constituted 20 per cent, or 1 in 5 dollars of the entire portfolio. Due to the growth in other equity components of the portfolio since this level has not been subsequently exceeded.
Nonetheless, it is instructive to understand that the dollar value of combined gold and Bitcoin holdings is actually up around $40 000 from that brief peak. With the larger portfolio, this now means they together make up 17.2 per cent of the total portfolio value.
Tacking into the wind of portfolio movements?
The logical question to fall out from this situation is: to what extent should this drive an active choice to sell down gold and Bitcoin until they resume their 10 per cent target allocation?
This would currently imply selling around $130 000 of gold or Bitcoin, and generating a capital gains tax liability of potentially up to $27 000. Needless to say this is not an attractive proposition. Several other considerations lead me to not make this choice:
This approach is a departure from a mechanistic implementation of an asset allocation rule. Rather, the approach I take is pragmatic.
Tracking course drift in the portfolio components
As an example, I regularly review whether a significant fall in Bitcoin prices to its recent lows would alter my monthly decision on where to direct new investments. So far it does not, and the 'signal' continues to be to buy new equities.
Another tool I use is a monthly measurement of the absolute dollar variance of Australian and global shares, as well as fixed interest, from their ideal target allocations.
The chart below sets this out for the period since January 2019. A positive value effectively represents an over-allocation to a sector, a negative value, an under-allocation compared to target.
[Chart]
This reinforces the overall story that, as gold and Bitcoin have grown in value, there emerges a larger 'deficit' to the target. Falls in equities markets across February and March also produce visibly larger 'dollar gaps' to the target allocation.
This graph enables a tracking of the impact of portfolio gains or losses, and volatility, and a better understanding of the practical task of returning to target allocations. Runaway lines in either direction would be evidence that current approaches for returning to targets were unworkable, but so far this does not appear to be the case.
A crossing over: a credit card FI milestone
This month has seen a long awaited milestone reached.
Calculated on a past three year average, portfolio distributions now entirely meet monthly credit card expenses. This means that every credit card purchase - each shopping trip or online purchase - is effectively paid for by average portfolio distributions.
At the start of this journey, distributions were only equivalent to around 40 per cent of credit card expenses. As time has progressed distributions have increased to cover a larger and larger proportion of card expenses.
[Chart]
Most recently, with COVID-19 related restrictions having pushed card expenditure down further, the remaining gap to this 'Credit Card FI' target has closed.
Looked at on an un-smoothed basis, expenditures on the credit card have continued to be slightly lower than average across the past month. The below chart details the extent to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month.
[Chart]
Credit card expenditure makes up around 80 per cent of total spending, so this is not a milestone that makes paid work irrelevant or optional. Similarly, if spending rises as various travel and other restrictions ease, it is possible that this position could be temporary.
Equally, should distributions fall dramatically below long term averages in the year ahead, this could result in average distributions falling faster than average monthly card expenditure. Even without this, on a three year average basis, monthly distributions will decline as high distributions received in the second half of 2017 slowly fall out of the estimation sample.
For the moment, however, a slim margin exists. Distributions are $13 per month above average monthly credit card bills. This feels like a substantial achievement to note, as one unlooked for at the outset of the journey.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 84.8% 114.6%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 103.5% 139.9%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 82.9% 112.1%
Summary
What feels like a long winter is just passed. The cold days and weeks have felt repetitive and dominated by a pervasive sense of uncertainty. Yet through this time, this wandering off, the portfolio has moved quite steadily back towards it previous highs. That it is even approaching them in the course of just a few months is unexpected.
What this obscures is the different components of growth driving this outcome. The portfolio that is recovering, like the index it follows, is changing in its underlying composition. This can be seen most starkly in the high levels of variance from the target portfolio sought discussed above.
It is equally true, however, of individual components such as international equity holdings. In the case of the United States the overall index performance has been driven by share price growth in just a few information technology giants. Gold and Bitcoin have emerged from the shadows of the portfolio to an unintended leading role in portfolio growth since early 2019.
This month I have enjoyed reading the Chapter by Chapter release of the Aussie FIRE e-book coordinated by Pearler. I've also been reading posts from some newer Australian financial independence bloggers, Two to Fire, FIRE Down Under, and Chasing FIRE Down Under.
In podcasts, I have enjoyed the Mad Fientist's update on his fourth year of financial freedom, and Pat and Dave's FIRE and Chill episodes, including an excellent one on market timing fallacies.
The ASX Australian Investor Study 2020 has also been released - setting out some broader trends in recent Australian investment markets, and containing a snapshot of the holdings, approaches and views of everyday investors. This contained many intriguing findings, such as the median investment portfolio ($130 000), its most frequent components (direct Australian shares), and how frequently portfolios are usually checked - with 61 per cent of investors checking their portfolios at least once a month.
This is my own approach also. Monthly assessments allow me to gauge and reflect on how I or elements of the portfolio may have wandered off the straight way in the middle of the journey. Without this, the risk is that dark woods and bent pathways beckon.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

How Money Turns Us Against Our Own Nature

I feel like sharing these thoughts because I’m having a contemplative evening and they’re coming together really nicely right now.
I think having a currency, be it physical money or even a virtual currency like bitcoin or anything along those lines turns humans against themselves by making them betray their very own nature.
Here’s a simplified and true example. Condensed. Scientists taught monkeys to use a currency. One of the first things that happened is a female monkey had sex with a male monkey and used the earned currency to buy a grape. So within about one day of monkeys having money the first monkey prostitute was born. You’re welcome and have a nice day.
How does money turn is against our own nature? It’s a simple trick of our reward system. It’s the psychology behind money that keeps it going. Without the thought behind it it’s just useless inedible paper, metal or a bunch of tiny bits of information on a hard drive.
Human reward systems are wired to go after the things that give us the greatest perceived reward and to spend the least amount of effort possible doing it.
In nature, if you have two options, eat the apple that just fell on the ground in front of you or swim across a river to eat a grape on the other side, you will pick the apple on the ground.
Why? Because the apple is a bigger reward and requires less energy.
If you kept swimming across rivers to eat things on the other side instead of eating what’s right in front of you, you would put yourself at greater risk of drowning and eventually drown, starve or both.
So our minds are geared towards finding the simplest solution.
We’re also geared towards solutions that solve the most amount of problems with the least effort.
For example we could keep wearing fur coats and walking around in the bush and keep getting wet and cold and making a fire to stay warm...toughing it out every day...getting attacked by predators.
Or we could build a shelter and solve all of our wet and cold problems forever...and then also not have to worry about predators while we sleep. Although building a shelter requires more energy initially, you do it once and most problems are solved.
So we will pick options that require more energy if the reward is greater.
When our brains logical center picks up on the fact that we have done something that was easier and worked out better for us they will release chemicals that make us feel good.
The reward for surviving a night in the forest is good.
But the reward for building a shelter is much greater. More dopamine.
That’s the reason people get hooked on crack. You do very little and you get a massive dopamine boost. Your mind learns that this minimal effort gives you the biggest perceived reward...and it keeps going. Why not? Less effort, massive reward. It’s in your nature. It’s how evolution favoured us for millions of years. It never changed.
So what does this have to do with money?
Money is a dopamine shortcut. You acquire money. The perceived reward of the money is much greater than the perceived reward of anything else. Your mind clues in like this:
“Wait? There is something called money and all I have to to is get enough of it and ALL my needs will be met because I can buy anything I want?”
That’s the biggest dopamine reward possible without inducing a chemical into your brain.
Money = All Needs Met
Our brains are meant to get tunnel vision when there’s an opportunity for a reward. That’s how they work. That tunnel vision is meant to blind us to the adversity we will have to face to get the reward.
For example, if you are at the base of a cliff and you haven’t eaten for two days, but at the top of the cliff you can see that there is enough food to last you a year, you’re going to climb that cliff. You will set aside your fear of heights. You will set aside your hunger and aching muscles. You will pump up adrenaline and you will climb that cliff. Your body will numb the pain in your hands and feet from the sharp rocks. And you get to the top of that cliff. And you’re set for a whole year. If it wasn’t for the tunnel vision because you perceived a reward, you wouldn’t have climbed that cliff.
This is all perfect in a natural environment.
But we also evolved a special part of our brain that uses all kinds of logic and worst of all allows for abstract thinking. Suddenly, vague concepts in our brain can seem just as real as reality itself. This was meant to enable us to problem solve. So that if there is a problem, the perceived solution creates the same focus and tunnel vision and enables us to get things done.
Let’s say I am hungry. I find some food. But it’s honey. It’s inside of a beehive. All that exists in reality is me and the bees that will sting me as I approach.
But then my mind will create an alternate reality in a sense. It starts throwing abstract concepts around until it finds a solution that works. It presents the solution to the reward system the same way that that the senses themselves are hooked up to it. Suddenly, I see myself lighting a fire and smoking out the bees and eating the honey. This now seems just as real to me as reality itself. It takes that solution and tells me “if you do this you will get your dopamine reward”. The mirage in my mind that shows me the solution by meddling with the part of my brain that processes my senses blinds me a bit to other sensory input because it has to take up that space in the brain to create a fake reality in the hopes it will become real. It’s a phenomenon that’s been proven over millions of years to work.
It’s what gives humans an edge over most animals.
Instead of just instinct, theres now a processing edge that takes in a ton of data and performs advanced risk vs reward calculations and tells us what to do. It’s better than instinct. Instead of fight or flight, there’s now focused intention. It works.
So I light a fire and smoke out the bees ignoring the odd minor sting because I know this is sure to work and I will get my honey in the end.
So now we are a species that is meant to specifically expend energy to problem solve ways to best meet the most of our needs as easily as possible. And we have a currency that exists as a social concept that presents a solution to rapidly meet all our needs. We also have a reward system that will easily justify making sacrifices to meet our needs.
This is a massive problem. A reward as great as money doesn’t exist in nature. However it exists as an abstract concept in our head that carries just as much weight in our decision making as something that exists for real. And the abstract concept presents a perceived reward far greater than anything we could attain from out environment.
Basically, money only exists as an abstract concept. But our brains are wired to work with abstract concepts as if they were real because it enables our survival and is a part of how our thoughts work.
So at some point in everyone’s life they are exposed to the abstract concept of money through language. The language creates thoughts that enable us to fall into a dopamine trap looking for a reward thats greater and requires less effort to attain.
So now our brains do what they do best. They generate a strong focus. They get tunnel vision. They prepare your body and mind to go through the hurdles necessary to attain a reward. And worse, our minds reprioritize.
In the example with the cliff, reprioritization plays a role. Normally avoiding heights and not cutting myself is high up on my list if things I want to avoid. We are wired to avoid pain.
But the years worth of food creates a reprioritization. Suddenly a couple cuts don’t seem like a big deal. The thought of falling to my death, a risk normally avoided at all costs, suddenly is an afterthought in the quest for food.
In the example with the cliff though there are limitations. There’s an upper limit to how far it will go. So if the rocks turn out to be way too sharp or it’s seemingly impossible to climb, I will look for a way around it and it all else fails give up and look for food elsewhere. But once inna while I will think of the cliff and maybe come up with a solution some day.
But with money because we aren’t aware of it for what it really is and we haven’t given much thought to it, it basically slowly corrupts us.
Every time we get money we get a dopamine hit. The more money we get, the bigger that dopamine hit is.
The more we get the reward, the more the behaviour we chose to acquire it is reinforced.
Just like the example with the beehive. I got the honey. I’ll remember it and find another beehive later. It just works. This is good for survival.
We remember that getting money worked. We will do it again. Especially once we have experienced the moment of spending it and seeing that it does in fact work and that other people are all in on the secret.
And because money gives us the greatest reward possible, we will go after it harder than we will go after everything else.
The reprioritization and tunnel vision this causes are the biggest problem. The more money you get, the more you repeat the cycle, the more of a cash junkie you become.
Why do addicts lie, cheat, steal, neglect their kids and ruin their lives? Because their minds have reprioritized to a bigger hit of dopamine by getting it the easiest way possible.
It’s the same with money. But almost worse because it actually does work. And the reward is bigger.
But the reprioritization seems to know no bounds. Here is the evil this brings into the world.
It creates a conflict of interest.
Everyone is out to get money as their primary goal. Or almost everyone. Only those who are intelligent and see through the dopamine trap tend to avoid it. And they usually end up cast aside by society because the society has reprioritized money over these individuals health and happiness.
We reprioritize our own children out of our lives. Suddenly we can justify making them go to school with complete strangers and we honestly don’t know what their day is like. But it’s okay because the money we’re making solves all problems after all. It can solve their problems too that’s why they have a college fund.
So we raise lonely damaged kids who will have money and no happiness and we go against our own nature. Naturally mothers and fathers are wired to spend 100% of their time with their children and take them with them unless they are doing something dangerous.
We now to against out own wiring and dehumanize ourselves and our children because money is around the corner.
Let’s say you have to get therapy. The fact that the therapist, who is supposed to be helping you, earns money to help you creates a conflict of interest. They will have a dopamine system that naturally drives them to want to earn more money. Which means instead of helping you the best they can, they will want to help you in a way that earns them the most cash. To the point where if you go through a crisis and need help the most but can’t pay because you’re short rent, they will literally sever a 2 year long relationship when you’re in your biggest time of need. Sadly, money has taken priority over actually helping the client.
Lets say a police officer responds to your call for help. If it’s something that is less likely to get them ahead in their career, like a burglary in a poor area, they will be less motivated to help you even if the crime is more serious. They want to advance in their career to get more money so they will be less motivated to spend time and effort on you even if a terrible crime has been committed.
Our whole healthcare system isn’t motivated to find cures for diseases but just treatments. As that solution makes the most sense when viewed through the skewed lens of the money dopamine taking precedence over all else. Money is now valued over the health and wellbeing of the patients. So there’s a conflict of interest with the healthcare system, pharmaceutical system and so on. The people working for those companies all want to make money and whether doing it consciously or subconsciously they will tend to lean towards options that get them more money because again it’s a he quickest way to the greatest reward.
I hope you see where I’m going with this. Money is like a fucking drug. It doesn’t exist in nature and just in our heads which actually makes it worse than a drug. At least you can see drugs and the effect they are having on someone’s life.
Money is much more insidious. You can tell how high someone is by looking at them. But you can’t tell how much money they have. And even if you can tell they have money because they’re flaunting it, your goal will suddenly become to be just like them. Because you think that it they have money, you can have money too if you do what they do.
No one looks at Joe the crackhead and thinks “Oh my God I want to be like him when I grow up.”
But everyone looks at Trump the billionaire, whose ONLY redeeming factor is that he’s the biggest junkie to cash on Earth. He put kids in fucking modern day concentration camps. And we’re all ignoring it. Because we’re all focused on other things. Saving those kids will probably be inconvenient for us anyway because we might get a criminal record which will make us less likely to earn money later. Or we might ruin our social status by talking about it which will ruin our ability to earn money later.
So basically in short the whole world is completely fucked because about 90% of the population has an addiction to a currency that only exists in out heads, is probably on par with crack addiction as far as the severity it causes us to reprioritize our lives around it, and instead of seeing it as a problem we see it as something to aspire to because it’s in our nature to do that.
You see someone fishing you want to learn how to fish because it’s an easier way to get food.
You see someone making money and you want to do what they’re doing damn you and their and everyone else’s humanity because your dopamine is now hijacked by a concept your mind will never drop because it gives the greatest reward with the least energy expenditure.
We hurt ourselves by neglecting our own needs because or the tunnel vision. We willingly hand our lives and most of our time over to people who have more money than us or a greater ability to earn money than us (we call them employers to cushion the blow and to feed into our own junkie like denial that we have a problem).
There’s a lot more money to be made in cutting down the rainforest than there is to be made in saving it.
And here is the worst part of all of this:
There is no way out. Because the majority of the world is ruled by money there is nowhere to go to get away from it.
If you decide you don’t want money you’re going to be hated by all the people who want money first and foremost and are in denial.
People don’t like people who don’t care about money. Because they think like junkies. Their minds are so reprioritized that they can see someone freezing to death on the street and just think...
Well I could help them but it would be inconvenient because it might get in the way of my sleep which would get in the way of work which would get in the way of me getting money.
That’s basically what this is doing to us.
So when the fuck are we going to realize that as a species at this point in time on planet Earth we collectively have an addiction which is destroying us and the entire planet we live on?
When are we going to put down the proverbial crack pipe and realize “we have a problem” and go do a fucking cashaholics anonymous group and say...
“I need to make amends to all the people I’ve hurt and the planet I’ve destroyed because of my problem. I’m destroying myself and my children. I’m ruining everyone’s life including my own. Because I have an addiction to money.”
submitted by GoingVeganOrBust to Psychonaut [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Rush!! What's driving the price right now? What is Bitcoin What is Bitcoins Bitcoin Explained - YouTube What is Driving Bitcoin Price? BET on BTC To $100,000 by 2020 - Crypto News

Elsewhere, Lifeboat Foundation’s Philip Raymond also authored a piece on the forces driving Bitcoin’s value. “It’s ironic that when a high fraction of value is driven by speculation, short-term value becomes volatile and long-term value becomes less certain—and less likely to produce returns for those same speculators,” he wrote in a blog post. Raymond first and foremost day ... There’s also one other event that’s driving the bitcoin price in 2020, and that’s the so-called “halving,” which will occur in May. Bitcoin miners discover new coins by solving complex math problems on their powerful computers. At this time, miners are being rewarded with 12.5 per every block they mine, but the rewards are cut in half every four years, which helps rein in inflation ... As the bitcoin price hits levels not seen since January 2018, an analysis of three primary price drivers reveals all three are long term macro trends - supporting the narrative of a sustainable ... That bitcoin has value based on how much that processing power (the computer) costs and how long it took to run the algorithms. Maybe the cryptocurrency called Ethereum is a better example. Bitcoin makes up the largest share of all crytocurrencies. Now onto valuing bitcoin. What Drives Bitcoin Price? Not fundamental valuations… Traditional investors have often tried to develop an “intrinsic value” of bitcoin by analyzing its supply.. But that method misses one key fact: bitcoin’s supply remains relatively fixed because of its underlying code.

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Bitcoin Rush!! What's driving the price right now?

Highlights from The Value of Bitcoin Conference on June 3rd, 2019. After more than 10 years, Bitcoin is still around and the signals that indicate Bitcoin is here to stay are only getting stronger. What is Bitcoin What is Bitcoins Bitcoin explainedBitcoins explained- Learn about Bitcoin, it's history and why people are buying it, how it's used, the t... For More Information, please click the link below - http://etoro.tw/2jeLs1u Follow Mati: @MatiGreenspan Watch the webinar with Yoni Assia & Jaynemesis, use t... Bitcoin has been retracing for the last couple of days, but what's causing it? This is something Mattie will dig into as well as the fact that you can now bet on Bitcoin $100,000 with new call ...

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